IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_377_00.html

The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts

Author

Listed:
  • Filippo Altissimo

    (Banca d�Italia, Research Department)

  • Domenico J. Marchetti

    (Banca d�Italia, Research Department)

  • Gian Paolo Oneto

    (ISAE)

Abstract

This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the turning points of the coincident indicator on average by six months. On the methodological side, the study provides a scheme for constructing cyclical indicators on a sound statistical basis through iterative steps, combining the use of traditional NBER methods with that of more recent techniques of cyclical analysis. A number of stylized facts of the Italian business cycle emerge. Among them, money and financial variables are found to lead the cycle, chronologically, by an average of between one year and sixteen months. There is also strong evidence of synchronization of international cycles, with the US and UK cycles leading the Italian cycle by two to three quarters. The main linking channel seems to be trade, with Italian exports to EU countries leading the cycle by six months on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_377_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2000/2000-0377/tema_377_00.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, R Todd, 1992. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 413-430, November.
    2. Panetta, F. & Violi, R., 1999. "Is there an Equity Premium Puzzle in Italy? A Look at Asset Returns, Consumption and Financial Structure Data Over the Last Century," Papers 353, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pelizzon, Loriana & Weber, Guglielmo, 2009. "Efficient portfolios when housing needs change over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2110-2121, November.
    2. Hall, Thomas E., 1995. "Price cyclicality in the natural rate-nominal demand shock model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 257-272.
    3. Grande, Giuseppe & Ventura, Luigi, 2002. "Labor income and risky assets under market incompleteness: Evidence from Italian data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 597-620, March.
    4. Jean-Pascal Bénassy, 2002. "Conférence François-Albert Angers (2002)," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(4), pages 423-457.
    5. Nicholas APERGIS, 1996. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices: Evidence From Seven Developing Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 34(2), pages 204-211, June.
    6. Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock market fluctuations and money demand in Italy, 1913-2003," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 576, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2006. "Why Did the Sign of the Price-Output Correlation Change? Evidence from a Structural VAR with GARCH Errors," Working Papers 200602, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2006.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Gloria Claudio-Quiroga & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2022. "The relationship between prices and output in the UK and the US," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-13, June.
    9. David Smant, 1996. "Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 651-674, December.
    10. Corrado, Luisa & Rossi, Isolina, 2019. "Anatomy of credit-less recoveries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2005. "Awareness and Stock Market Participation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(4), pages 537-567.
    12. Monica Paiella & Andrea Tiseno, 2004. "Stock market optimism and participation cost: a mean-variance estimation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 239, Econometric Society.
    13. Joseph Haslag & William Brock, 2014. "On Understanding the Cyclical Behavior of the Price Level and Inflation," Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 01 Jul 2014.
    14. Puneet Vatsa & Hem C. Basnet & Franklin G. Mixon & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2024. "Stock Markets Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 255-278, August.
    15. Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 2000. "Household Portfolios in Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 507-518.
    18. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    19. Jakob Madsen & Bill Yang, 1998. "Asymmetric price adjustment in a menu-cost model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 295-309, October.
    20. Monica Paiella & Andrea Tiseno, 2004. "Stock market optimism and participation cost: a mean-variance estimation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 239, Econometric Society.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_377_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.