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Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator

Author

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  • Quinn, Terry

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Mawdsley, Andrew

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research into the construction of a composite leading indicator of the Irish rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It follows the work of Fagan and Fell (1994) who applied the business cycle leading indicator methodology, initially established by Mitchell and Burns (1938,1946), to construct a composite leading indicator of the Irish business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/96
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Artis, M J, et al, 1995. "Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1145-1164, September.
    2. Smith, R Todd, 1992. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 413-430, November.
    3. Roger Perman, 1991. "Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 3-30, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berrin Aytac & S. Wu, 2013. "Characterization of demand for short life-cycle technology products," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 203(1), pages 255-277, March.
    2. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.
    3. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile, 2021. "ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 687-707.
    4. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Zivile Zekaite & Gabe de Bondt & Elke Hahn, 2017. "Alice: A New Inflation Monitoring Tool," EcoMod2017 10414, EcoMod.
    6. Khatun, Fahmida & Ahamad, Mazbahul G., 2012. "Investigating the determinants of inflationary trends in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds F-Test Approach," MPRA Paper 42572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. B Aytac & S D Wu, 2011. "Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 425-432, March.
    8. Quinn, Terry & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "Inflation Analysis: An Overview," MPRA Paper 11361, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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