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Inflation Analysis: An Overview

  • Quinn, Terry

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Kenny, Geoff

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Meyler, Aidan

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy (SOE), indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 1/RT/99.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/99
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  1. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian Var Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
  2. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
  3. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
  4. Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1999. "Modelling Traded, Non-traded and Aggregate Inflation in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(1), pages 60-88, January.
  5. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers," NBER Working Papers 5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kenny, Geoff, 1996. "Capacity Utilisation in Irish Manufacturing," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
  8. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
  10. Callan, Tim & FitzGerald, John, 1989. "Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers ME179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  11. Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998. "Is There Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Research Discussion Papers 15/1998, Bank of Finland.
  12. Geoff Kenny & Donal Mcgettigan, 1998. "Exchange rates and import prices for a small open economy: the case of Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1147-1155.
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