Inflation Analysis: An Overview
The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy (SOE), indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Enrique Alberola-Ila & Tymo Tyrväinen, 1998.
"Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries,"
Banco de Espa�a Working Papers
9823, Banco de Espa�a.
- Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998. "Is There Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Research Discussion Papers 15/1998, Bank of Finland.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995.
"Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998.
"Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation,"
11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian Var Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996.
"Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers,"
NBER Working Papers
5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1999. "Modelling Traded, Non-traded and Aggregate Inflation in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(1), pages 60-88, January.
- Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998.
"Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models,"
11359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kenny, Geoff, 1996. "Capacity Utilisation in Irish Manufacturing," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986.
"Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution,"
93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geoff Kenny & Donal Mcgettigan, 1998. "Exchange rates and import prices for a small open economy: the case of Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1147-1155.
- Callan, Tim & FitzGerald, John, 1989. "Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers ME179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Smith)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.