Inflation Analysis: An Overview
The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy (SOE), indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2|
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998.
"Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models,"
Research Technical Papers
3/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 11359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
- Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
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- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Quah and Vahey core inflation estimation," Statistical Software Components RTZ00139, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian Var Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Geoff Kenny & Donal Mcgettigan, 1998. "Exchange rates and import prices for a small open economy: the case of Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1147-1155.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers," NBER Working Papers 5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998. "Is there scope for inflation differentials in EMU : An empirical evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelsson model in EMU countries," Research Discussion Papers 15/1998, Bank of Finland.
- Enrique Alberola-Ila & Tymo Tyrväinen, 1998. "Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Working Papers 9823, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Callan, Tim & FitzGerald, John, 1989. "Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers ME179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1999. "Modelling Traded, Non-traded and Aggregate Inflation in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(1), pages 60-88, January.
- Kenny, Geoff, 1996. "Capacity Utilisation in Irish Manufacturing," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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