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Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries


  • Enrique Alberola-Ila
  • Tymo Tyrväinen


The Balassa-Samuelson (BS) model is evaluated in eight of the eleven EMU countries. This model suggests that productivity differentials between traded and non-traded goods sectors generate sectoral inflation differentials (dual inflation). Furthermore, differentials in the degree of dual inflation induce inflation differentials between countries. The standard BS model implies a cointegration relationship between ralative prices and sectoral productivities. While the link generally seems to exist, the magnitudes of the parameter estimates are not in accordance with the theoretical model in most countries. Since the presumed uniformity of sectoral wages is rejected in most cases, relative wages are allowed to enter the estimation. This extended BS model is endorsed by the data in every country.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola-Ila & Tymo Tyrväinen, 1998. "Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Working Papers 9823, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:9823

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Marková & Jiøí Podpiera, 2003. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(3-4), pages 130-153, March.
    2. Todorov Ivan Krumov, 2014. "Macroeconomic Trends in the New Member Countries of the European Union Before the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 61(2), pages 197-217, December.
    3. Lojschová, Adriana, 2003. "Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies," Economics Series 140, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Issing, Otmar, 2001. "The Single Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank: One Size Fits All," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 441-462, Winter.
    6. Alberto Alonso & Vanesa Guzmán, 2014. "Monetary Union Viability: A Criterion Proposal," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 717-750, November.
    7. Carla Massidda & Paolo Mattana, 2008. "Regional productivity and relative prices dynamics: the case of Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 945-966, December.
    8. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation," Working Paper Series 278, European Central Bank.
    9. João Rebelo Barbosa & Rui Henrique Alves, 2011. "The Euro Area Ten Years after Its Creation: (Divergent) Competitiveness and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 605-629, December.
    10. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalin Hristov, 2001. "Official Eurozation of Bulgaria: Pluses and Minuses," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 64-80.
    11. Iikka Korhonen & Mare Randveer, 2015. "Assessment of the Euros's implications for European economic development," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2000-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 03 Feb 2015.
    12. Brandmeier, Michael, 2006. "Reasons for real appreciation in Central Europe," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 55, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. João Rebelo Barbosa & Rui Henrique Alves, 2011. "Divergent competitiveness in the eurozone and the optimum currency area theory," FEP Working Papers 436, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    14. Quinn, Terry & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "Inflation Analysis: An Overview," MPRA Paper 11361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Philipp Maier, 2004. "EMU enlargement, inflation and adjustment of tradable goods prices: What to expect?," DNB Working Papers 010, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Manuela Nenna, 2001. "Price Level Convergence among Italian Cities: Any Role for the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis?," Working Papers 64, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    17. repec:got:cegedp:55 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item



    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation


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