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La Inflación Básica en Colombia: Evaluación de Indicadores Alternativos

  • C. Felipe Jaramillo y Otros

El objetivo de este trabajo es describir y evaluar indicadores de inflación básica utilizados por el Banco de la República (inflación sin alimento, inflación sin alimentos y servicios públicos y transporte, media truncada al 20% y mediana) y otros alternativos (inflación núcleo, media truncada y mediana a diferentes niveles de truncamiento, media asimétrica y filtro de Hodrick y Prescott). La evaluación se sustenta en diversos criterios estadísticos - variabilidad, insesgamiento, desviación con respecto a la inflación suavizada, capacidad de pronóstico y relación con agregados monetarios - que reflejan las propiedades deseables de cualquier indicador de inflación básica. Los resultados de este ejercicio muestran que la mayoría de los indicadores evaluados resultan ser medidas adecuadas de la inflación de demanda. Aún asi, se encontró que la inflación núcleo para varios niveles de truncamiento es particularmente adecuada al satisfacer la totalidad de los criterios estadísticos utilizados. Algo similar se puede decir de la media asimétrica y de la media truncada al 10%.Por el contrario, el IPC sin alimentos y el IPC sin alimentos, servicios públicos y transporte resultaron ser pobres indicadores de la inflación básica.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 136.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:136
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  1. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
  3. Michael F. Bryan & Christopher J. Pike, 1991. "Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
  4. Brent R. Moulton, 1996. "Bias in the Consumer Price Index: What Is the Evidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 159-177, Fall.
  5. Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
  6. Scott Roger, 1998. "Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, 07.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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