Core inflation: a critical guide
The term 'core inflation' is widely used by academics and central bankers. But despite its prevalence, there is neither a commonly accepted theoretical definition nor an agreed method of measuring it. The range of conceptual bases is potentially confusing, and can make the large number of available measures of core inflation difficult to interpret, particularly when they display different trends. Nevertheless, measures of core inflation can be helpful if they increase the signal to noise ratio in measured inflation. This paper examines a range of measures of core inflation for the United Kingdom, both conceptually and empirically, setting out their motivation and highlighting their potential limitations. No single measure performs well across the board, but a compromise conclusion on the usefulness of measures of core inflation is that each one may provide a different insight into the inflation process. There can be value in looking at a range of measures, as long as one bears in mind what information each type of indicator is best at providing. When all measures are giving the same message then, in a sense, monetary policy makers can reasonably consider that these measures are providing a reliable guide to inflationary pressures. It is when the measures start to diverge that policymakers need to take a much closer look at the reasons for those divergences.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH|
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997.
"When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Faust and Leeper JBES 1997 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00058, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- C.K. Folkertsma & K. Hubrich, 2000.
"Performance of core inflation measures,"
WO Research Memoranda (discontinued)
639, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999.
"Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues,"
9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Paper Series 0005, European Central Bank.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000.
"An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 1996. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Working Papers 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Isabel C. Andrade & Raymond J. O’Brien, 2001. "A Measure of Core Inflation in the UK," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Woodford Michael, 2002.
"Inflation Stabilization and Welfare,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
- Hasan Bakhshi & Tony Yates, 1999. "To trim or not to trim? An application of a trimmmed mean inflation estimator to the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 97, Bank of England.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"The consumer price index as a measure of inflation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1993.
"Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks,"
93-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, L. & Mankiw, G.H., 1992. "Relative-Price Change as Aggregate Supply Shocks," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1609, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Scott Roger, 1998. "Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- C.R. Marques & P.D. Neves & L.M. Sarmento, 2001. "Evaluating Core Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 66, Netherlands Central Bank.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, 08.
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roger Beaton & Paul Fisher, 1995. "The Construction of RPIY," Bank of England working papers 28, Bank of England.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Media Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.