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A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area

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  • Stracca, Livio
  • Bilke, Laurent

Abstract

We propose a new core inflation measure for the Euro area which places the emphasis on the more lasting, i.e. persistent, price developments at a disaggregated level. The importance of each component of the HICP is reweighted according to its relative persistence, as measured by the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or by an indicator of mean reversion. Unlike headline inflation, our baseline core inflation measure is highly correlated with ECB monetary policy decisions, which could mean that it contains ex ante (pre monetary policy) information on inflationary pressure. JEL Classification: E31

Suggested Citation

  • Stracca, Livio & Bilke, Laurent, 2008. "A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 905, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008905
    Note: 335958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ags:ijag24:346823 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bobeica Elena & Holton Sarah & Koester Gerrit, 2023. "Bringing Inflation Back Under Control," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 136-141, June.
    3. Zhiyong Fan & Yushan Hu & Penglong Zhang, 2022. "Measuring China's core inflation for forecasting purposes: taking persistence as weight," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 93-111, July.
    4. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    6. Mija, Simion & Slobozian, Dorin & Cuhal, Radu & Stratan, Alexandru, 2013. "How Core Inflation Reacts to the Second Round Effects," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 98-118, March.
    7. José Manuel Madeira Belbute, 2015. "Assessing core inflation indicators: evidence for Angola," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2015_01, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    8. Rangasamy, L. & Nel, E., 2015. "Reconsidering the role of food prices in South African headline inflation," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 53(4), March.
    9. Gatt, William, 2014. "An evaluation of core inflation measures for Malta," MPRA Paper 61250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mr. James P Walsh, 2011. "Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2011/071, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    12. Bermingham, Colin, 2010. "A critical assessment of existing estimates of US core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 993-1007, December.
    13. Šoškić, Dejan, 2015. "Inflation Impact Of Food Prices: Case Of Serbia," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 1-11, March.
    14. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Constructing U.K. Core Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Sigal Ribon, 2009. "Core Inflation Indices for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2009.08, Bank of Israel.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    core inflation; inflation persistence.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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