The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures
This paper examines a number of alternative PCE price inflation measures including overall PCE inflation, PCE inflation excluding food and energy, trimmed mean PCE inflation, component-smoothed inflation, variance-weighted inflation, inflation with weights based on disaggregated regressions, and survey measures of inflation expectations. When averaging across a handful of specifications based on the primary uses of a core inflation measure three conclusions arise: 1. Inflation rates for nearly all the measures best track ex-post trend inflation or predict future overall inflation when they are averaged over a considerable number of months. Overall PCE price inflation should be averaged over 18 months or longer. A shorter averaging period is appropriate for core measures, often on the order of 12 months. 2. Even after appropriately averaging each index, core inflation indexes generally perform better than overall inflation. 3. Exclusion indexes, such as PCE excluding food and energy, perform slightly worse than many other possible core inflation measures; trimmed mean PCE, or a variance-weighted index, may be better choice for a summary inflation measure.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pietro Catte & Torsten Sløk, 2005. "Assessing the value of indicators of underlying inflation for monetary policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 461, OECD Publishing.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011.
"CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2009. "CONDI: a cost-of-nominal-distortions index," Staff Reports 367, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2009. "CONDI: a cost-of-nominal-distortions index," Working Paper Series 2009-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2006.
"A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Giannone, Domenico & Matheson, Troy, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," CEPR Discussion Papers 6469, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2007. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6407, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- James Dolmas & Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Measuring core inflation: notes from a 2007 Dallas Fed conference," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May.
- Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004.
"Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
- Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
- Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2010.
"Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 128-57, July.
- Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christian Gillitzer & John Simon, 2006. "Component-smoothed Inflation: Estimating the Persistent Component of Inflation in Real Time," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Robert W. Rich & Charles Steindel, 2007. "A comparison of measures of core inflation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 19-38.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999.
"Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues,"
9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Paper Series 0005, European Central Bank.
- Bilke, Laurent & Stracca, Livio, 2008.
"A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
0905, European Central Bank.
- Bilke, Laurent & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1032-1047, November.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006.
"Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Pedersen, 2006.
"An Alternative Measure of Core Inflation,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
366, Central Bank of Chile.
- Kapetanios, George, 2004. "A note on modelling core inflation for the UK using a new dynamic factor estimation method and a large disaggregated price index dataset," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 63-69, October.
- Smith, Julie K, 2004. "Weighted Median Inflation: Is This Core Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 253-63, April.
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer, 2010. "Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
- Tony Richards & Tom Rosewall, 2010. "Measures of Underlying Inflation," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 7-12, March.
- Timothy Cogley, 1998.
"A simple adaptive measure of core inflation,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento, 2000.
"Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators,"
w200003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1999. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008.
"Phillips curve inflation forecasts,"
Conference Series ; [Proceedings],
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
- C.K. Folkertsma & K. Hubrich, 2001.
"Performance of core inflation measures,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
63, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Domenech, Rafael & Gomez, Victor, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU as Latent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 354-365, July.
- Brent Meyer & Mehmet Pasaogullari, 2010. "Simple ways to forecast inflation: what works best?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
- James Dolmas, 2005. "Trimmed mean PCE inflation," Working Papers 0506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- George Kapetanios, 2002. "Modelling Core Inflation for the UK Using a New Dynamic Factor Estimation Method and a Large Disaggregated Price Index Dataset," Working Papers 471, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Kevin Clinton, 2006. "Core inflation at the Bank of Canada: A critique," Working Papers 1077, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
- François R. Velde, 2006. "An alternative measure of inflation," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 56-65.
- Arrazola, Maria & de Hevia, Jose, 2002. "An alternative measure of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-73, March.
- Joanne Cutler, 2001. "Core Inflation in the UK," Discussion Papers 03, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2003. "Measuring US core inflation: A common trends approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 197-212, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.