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Simple ways to forecast inflation: what works best?

Author

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  • Brent Meyer
  • Mehmet Pasaogullari

Abstract

There are many ways to forecast the future rate of inflation, ranging from sophisticated statistical models involving hundreds of variables to hunches based on past experience. We generate a number of forecasts using a simple statistical model and an even simpler estimating rule, adding in various measures thought to be helpful in predicting the course of inflation. Then we compare their forecast accuracy. We find that no single specification outperforms all others over all time periods. For example, the median and 16 percent trimmed-mean measures outperform all other specifications during the 1990s, and survey-based inflation expectations seem to do better during volatile periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Meyer & Mehmet Pasaogullari, 2010. "Simple ways to forecast inflation: what works best?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2010:i:dec6:n:2010-17
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2012. "Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle," Working Paper 1217, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 01 Feb 2014.
    2. Verbrugge, Randal & Higgins, Amy, 2015. "Tracking Trend Inflation: Nonseasonally Adjusted Variants of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Paper 1527, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2017. "Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures," MPRA Paper 80496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jose Luis Nolazco & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2016. "The evasive predictive ability of core inflation," Working Papers 15/34, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:52:y:2014:i:4:p:32-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "It’s not just for inflation: The usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting," Working Paper 1303, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Kapur, Muneesh, 2013. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for India and inflation forecasting," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 17-27.
    10. Meyer, Brent & Zaman, Saeed, 2016. "The Usefulness of the Median CPI in Bayesian VARs Used for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Alan K. Detmeister, 2012. "What should core inflation exclude?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "On the Accuracy of Analysts’ Forecasts of Inflation in an Emerging Market Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 32-46, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance) ; Forecasting;

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