Modelling Core Inflation for the UK Using a New Dynamic Factor Estimation Method and a Large Disaggregated Price Index Dataset
Recent work in the macroeconometric literature considers the problem of summarising efficiently a large set of variables and using this summary for a variety of purposes including forecasting. This paper applies a new factor extraction method to the extraction of core inflation and forecasting of UK inflation in the recent past.
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- Kapetanios, George, 2007. "Variable selection in regression models using nonstandard optimisation of information criteria," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 4-15, September.
- Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
- Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Kapetanios, George, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation," Working Paper Series 402, European Central Bank.
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Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1043-1053, September.
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- Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Alfonso Novales Cinca, 2009. "State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0908, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- George Kapetanios, 2007. "Dynamic factor extraction of cross-sectional dependence in panel unit root tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 313-338.
- Sandra Eickmeier & Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Global Dimension of Inflation – Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 103-122, 02.
- Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2009. "The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 1011, European Central Bank.
- Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic factor models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 27-42, March.
- Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- George Kapetanios & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 491-503.
- Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios, 2005. "Statistical Tests of the Rank of a Matrix and Their Applications in Econometric Modelling," Working Papers 541, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Kapetanios, George, 2004. "A note on modelling core inflation for the UK using a new dynamic factor estimation method and a large disaggregated price index dataset," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 63-69, October.
- Rachel Holden, 2006. "Measuring core inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-7, December.
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