Evaluating core inflation indicators
This paper proposes testable conditions that core inflation measures should satisfy. Trend inflation indicators calculated by Banco de Portugal are tested against this background. The major conclusion is that the so-called “underlying inflation”, the “10% trimmed mean”, and the “25% trimmed mean” do not meet the proposed conditions. However, they are satisfied by the “37-month centred moving average”, the “first principal component” and the “standard deviation weighted CPI” indicators. Yet, only the last two indicators can be used as useful core inflation measures, as the first one is not computable in real time.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003.
"Evaluating core inflation indicators,"
Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1999. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Mark A. Wynne, 1999.
"Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues,"
9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Paper Series 0005, European Central Bank.
- Le Bihan, Herve & Sedillot, Franck, 2000. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?: Out-of-sample evidence from French data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 261-266, December.
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997.
"Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999.
NBER Working Papers
7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- אסתר טולידנו, 1999. "מקבלי דמי אבטלה בשנת 1998," Working Papers 385, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
- אסתר טולידנו, 1995. "מקבלי דמי אבטלה בשנת 1994," Working Papers 444, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
- Fischer, Andreas M, 1989. "Unit Roots and Survey Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 451-63, November.
- L.J. Álvarez & M de los Llanos Matea, 2001.
"Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
60, Netherlands Central Bank.
- דר עמנואל חיגר, 1999. "חינוך מיני לנוער חרש," Working Papers 178, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
- Christine Gartner & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries," Working Papers 33, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Thérèse Laflèche, 1997. "Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 29-47.
- Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
- דר אברהם כרמלי & גב נעמה שמיר וגב לילי יצחקי, 1999. "מתחברים לנוער מנותק," Working Papers 191, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
- חנה וייל, 1995. "סיעוד במגזר הערבי," Working Papers 397, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
- אסתר טולדנו, 1997. "מקבלי דמי אבטלה בשנת 1996," Working Papers 521, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:20:y:2003:i:4:p:765-775. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.