The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations
Many central banks often focus on underlying measures of inflation when assessing inflation trends. This paper compares the accuracy of underlying measures of inflation relative to the headline rates by using Australian data. It is found that the underlying measures did have smaller errors in predicting the long-term trend in inflation than the quarterly headline rate in the sample period 1977—2001 and the inflation targeting subperiod starting from 1993, due to the large volatility of the headline rate. As compared to the year-ended headline rate, the statistical test results , however, support only the measure of market prices excluding volatile items, not the others. There is some weak evidence of the weighted median measure outperforming the headline rate in the subperiod after 1993. With respect to directional accuracy, the test statistics cannot reject the null hypothesis of an equal probability correctly predicting the moving direction of the inflation trend, though the headline rates have a higher probability.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia|
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark A. Wynne, 2008.
"Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Paper Series 0005, European Central Bank.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Papers 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Boskin, Michael J, et al, 1997. "The CPI Commission: Findings and Recommendations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 78-83, May.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
- Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Quah and Vahey core inflation estimation," Statistical Software Components RTZ00139, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The consumer price index as a measure of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
- Robert Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2004.
"Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 373-386, December.
- Robert Dixon & Guay Lim, 2003. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 878, The University of Melbourne.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996.
"Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers,"
NBER Working Papers
5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Erica L. Groshen, 2000. "Understanding Inflation: Implications for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 7482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Le Bihan, Herve & Sedillot, Franck, 2000. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?: Out-of-sample evidence from French data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 261-266, December.
- Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2003n29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Abbey Treloar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.