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Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

  • Riccardo Cristadoro

    ()

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Fabrizio Venditti

    ()

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Giuseppe Saporito

    ()

    (Bank of Italy, Cagliari)

The ECB objective of price stability is given a quantitative content as a year-on-year growth rate in the euro area HICP close but below 2% over the medium term. While this objective is referred to area-wide price developments, in anticipating monetary policy moves, market analysts pay considerable attention to national data. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to derive a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national with area-wide data, allow us to answer two related questions: whether country-specific data are actually relevant to the future path of area-wide inflation once the information contained in area-wide data has been exploited, and whether it is useful, in order to track ECB monetary policy decisions, to factor in national and not only area-wide statistics. In both cases, our findings suggest that, when area-wide information is properly taken into account, there is little to be gained by considering national idiosyncratic developments.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 677.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_677_08
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  1. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2006. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Veronese, Giovanni, 2006. "New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 5633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," MPRA Paper 836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
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  12. Svensson, Lars O, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," MPRA Paper 819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
  15. Paul De Grauwe, 2000. "Monetary Policies in the Presence of Asymmetries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 593-612, November.
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  18. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  26. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: What Role for National Information?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  27. André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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  29. Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  30. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
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  32. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
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