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Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

Author

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  • Riccardo Cristadoro

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Fabrizio Venditti

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Giuseppe Saporito

    () (Bank of Italy, Cagliari)

Abstract

The ECB objective of price stability is given a quantitative content as a year-on-year growth rate in the euro area HICP close but below 2% over the medium term. While this objective is referred to area-wide price developments, in anticipating monetary policy moves, market analysts pay considerable attention to national data. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to derive a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national with area-wide data, allow us to answer two related questions: whether country-specific data are actually relevant to the future path of area-wide inflation once the information contained in area-wide data has been exploited, and whether it is useful, in order to track ECB monetary policy decisions, to factor in national and not only area-wide statistics. In both cases, our findings suggest that, when area-wide information is properly taken into account, there is little to be gained by considering national idiosyncratic developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Cristadoro & Fabrizio Venditti & Giuseppe Saporito, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 677, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_677_08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guido Bulligan & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Forecasting economic activity with higher frequency targeted predictors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 847, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.
    3. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting industrial production: the role of information and methods," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 227-235 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast; Dynamic factor model; inflation; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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