The unreliability of inflation indicators
Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
Volume (Year): 6 (2000)
Issue (Month): Apr ()
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- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"The consumer price index as a measure of inflation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999.
NBER Working Papers
7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 21-38.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997.
"Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995.
"Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonas D.M. Fisher, 2000. "Forecasting inflation with a lot of data," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
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