The unreliability of inflation indicators
Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
Volume (Year): 6 (2000)
Issue (Month): Apr ()
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- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
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- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Forecasting inflation with a lot of data," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 21-38.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
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