Bayesian Var Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation
In this paper we focus on the development of multiple time series models for forecasting Irish Inflation. The Bayesian approach to the estimation of vector autoregressive (VAR) models is employed. This allows the estimated models combine the evidence in the data with any prior information which may also be available. A large selection of inflation indicators are assessed as potential candidates for inclusion in a VAR. The results confirm the significant improvement in forecasting performance which can be obtained by the use of Bayesian techniques. In general, however, forecasts of inflation contain a high degree of uncertainty. The results are also consistent with previous research in the Central Bank of Ireland which stresses a strong role for the exchange rate and foreign prices as a determinant of Irish prices.
|Date of creation:||Dec 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2|
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998.
"Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models,"
11359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993.
"Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance,"
in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 11-94
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1992. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1986. "The accuracy of two forecasting techniques: some evidence and an interpretation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 20-31.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995.
"Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998.
"Is There Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries,"
Research Discussion Papers
- Enrique Alberola-Ila & Tymo Tyrväinen, 1998. "Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Working Papers 9823, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Dotsey, Michael & Ireland, Peter, 1996.
"The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 29-47, February.
- Michael Dotsey & Peter N. Ireland, 1994. "The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium," Working Paper 94-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Forecasting and policy analysis with Bayesian vector autoregression models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Callan, Tim & FitzGerald, John, 1989. "Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers ME179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Martin Feldstein, 1996.
"The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability,"
NBER Working Papers
5469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1997. "A Monetary Approach to the Analysis of Inflation in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/97, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986.
"Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution,"
93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1999. "Modelling Traded, Non-traded and Aggregate Inflation in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(1), pages 60-88, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Smith)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.