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Comparison between Static and Dynamic Forecast in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index

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  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham

Abstract

This empirical study has provided interpretive outcome from a univariate forecast using Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The HCPI_SA seasonally adjusted data for Sierra Leone shows a robust model outcome with three months ahead prediction based on the STATIC method result. Test results like Autocorrelation and also comparative values for MAPE and the Inverted Root values have indicated that the model is a good fit. Despite better choice of outcome from the STATIC result in comparison to DYNAMIC forecast, the conclusion a cautious means of advice when using results for policy outcomes and with comparative forecasts highly recommended a way forward in guiding policy makers’ decision.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2018. "Comparison between Static and Dynamic Forecast in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index," MPRA Paper 86180, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86180
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emerson Abraham Jackson & Edmond Tamuke & Abdulai Sillah, 2018. "Modelling Monthly Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) through Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methodology," International Journal of Sciences, Office ijSciences, vol. 7(01), pages 51-56, January.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    3. Raffaella Giacomini, 2015. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 22-41, June.
    4. James W. Taylor, 2008. "A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 253-265, February.
    5. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    6. J W Taylor, 2003. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 799-805, August.
    7. Ikechukwu Kelikume & Adedoyin Salami, 2014. "Time Series Modeling and Forecasting Information: Evidence from Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(2), pages 41-51.
    8. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bianchi, Lisa & Jarrett, Jeffrey & Choudary Hanumara, R., 1998. "Improving forecasting for telemarketing centers by ARIMA modeling with intervention," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 497-504, December.
    10. Ette Harrison Etuk & Imoh Udo Moffat & Benjamin Ele Chims, 2013. "Modelling Monthly Rainfall Data of Port Harcourt, Nigeria by Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methods," International Journal of Sciences, Office ijSciences, vol. 2(07), pages 60-67, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jackson Emerson Abraham, 2017. "Theoretical and Methodological Context of (Post)-Modern Econometrics and Competing Philosophical Discourses for Policy Prescription," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 119-129, December.
    2. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2019. "Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model," MPRA Paper 96845, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2019.
    3. Emerson Abraham JACKSON & Mohamed JABBİE & Edmund TAMUKE & Augustine NGOMBU, 2020. "Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 21-50, July.
    4. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2018. "Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis: A case of the Sierra Leone Economy," MPRA Paper 88853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Sep 2018.
    5. Emerson Abraham Jackson, 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 29-43, January.
    6. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 97965, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2020.
    7. JACKSON Emerson Abraham & TAMUKE Edmund & JABBIE Mohamed, 2019. "Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (Stif) For Monetary Policy Decision In Sierra Leone," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 71(3), pages 31-53, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; Forecast; Headline Consumer Price Index [HCPI]; Sierra Leone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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