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Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

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  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham

Abstract

This study was carried out with the purpose of producing twelve out-of-sample forecast for a univariate exchange rate variable as a way of addressing challenges faced around dollarization issues in the domestic economy. In pursuit of this, the ARIMA model was utilised, with the best model [1,4,7] indicating that the Sierra Leone - Leone [SLL] currency will continue to depreciate against the United States Dollar [US$] throughout most part of the year 2020. This was done on the assumption of Ceteris Paribus condition, and most importantly on the view that past events of the univariate exchange rate variable is a determinant of future outcomes or performances. In a bid to moving forward, policy recommendations have suggested high level collaboration between relevant policy institutions like the Bank of Sierra Leone and the Ministry of Finance to address issues of concern, for example, a boost to the real sector and many more.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 97965, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97965
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97965/1/MPRA_paper_97965.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher E.S. WARBURTON, 2018. "Covered Interest Parity And Frictions In Currency And Money Markets: Analysis Of British Pound And Dollar For The Period 1999-2006," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(1), pages 55-72.
    2. Emerson Abraham Jackson & Edmond Tamuke & Abdulai Sillah, 2018. "Modelling Monthly Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) through Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methodology," International Journal of Sciences, Office ijSciences, vol. 7(01), pages 51-56, January.
    3. EMERSON Abraham Jackson, 2018. "Comparison Between Static And Dynamic Forecast In Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average For Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 53-65, August.
    4. repec:srs:journl:jasf:v:9:y:2018:i:1:p:34-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michael Bleaney & Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Zakari Mumuni, 2018. "Inflation targeting and monetary policy in Ghana," Discussion Papers 2018/07, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Emerson JACKSON & Edmund TAMUKE, 2018. "Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis A Case of the Sierra Leone Economy," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 34-44.
    7. Jackson, Emerson Aabraham, 2017. "Hermeneutics of Ceteris Paribus in the African Context," MPRA Paper 97817, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Oct 2018.
    8. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2018. "Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis: A case of the Sierra Leone Economy," MPRA Paper 88853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Sep 2018.
    9. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2016. "Phronesis and Resource Curse Hypothesis in Post-Independent Sierra Leone," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-11.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Box-Jenkins ARIMA; Exchange Rate; Forecast; Sierra Leone;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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