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Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis A Case of the Sierra Leone Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Emerson JACKSON

    (Research Department Bank of Sierra Leone Sierra Leone)

  • Edmund TAMUKE

    (Research Department Bank of Sierra Leone Sierra Leone)

Abstract

This article made use of ARIMAX methodology in producing probability forecast from Fan Chart analysis for the Sierra Leone economy In view of the estimation technique used to determine best model choice for outputting the Fan Chart the outcomes have shown the importance of Exchange Rate variable as an exogenous component in influencing Inflation dynamics in Sierra Leone The use of Brier Score probability was also used to ascertain the accuracy of the forecast methodology Despite inflation outcome is showing an upward trend for the forecasted periods the probability bands upper and lower have also revealed the peculiarity of the Sierra Leone economy when it comes to addressing policy measures for controlling spiralling inflation dynamics

Suggested Citation

  • Emerson JACKSON & Edmund TAMUKE, 2018. "Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis A Case of the Sierra Leone Economy," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 34-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:srs:jasf00:v:9:y:2018:i:1:p:34-44
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher E.S. Warburton & Emerson Abraham Jackson, 2020. "Monetary Policy Responses to Exogenous Perturbations: The Case of a Small Open Economy (2007-2018)," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(293), pages 181-201.
    2. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 97965, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2020.
    3. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Importance of the Public Service in Achieving the UN SDGs," MPRA Paper 101806, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jun 2020.
    4. Jackson Emerson Abraham, 2017. "Theoretical and Methodological Context of (Post)-Modern Econometrics and Competing Philosophical Discourses for Policy Prescription," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 119-129, December.
    5. Emerson Abraham JACKSON & Mohamed JABBİE & Edmund TAMUKE & Augustine NGOMBU, 2020. "Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 21-50, July.
    6. JACKSON Emerson Abraham & TAMUKE Edmund & JABBIE Mohamed, 2019. "Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (Stif) For Monetary Policy Decision In Sierra Leone," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 71(3), pages 31-53, November.
    7. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2021. "The Science and Art of Communicating Fan Chart Uncertainty: The case of Inflation Outcome in Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 105892, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2021.
    8. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Kamara, Purity & Kamara, Abdulsalam, 2022. "Determinants of Inflation in Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 117278, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2023.
    9. Emerson JACKSON & Edmund TAMUKE, 2019. "Predicting Disaggregated Tourist Arrivals In Sierra Leone Using Arima Model," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 132-142.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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