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Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model

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  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham
  • Tamuke, Edmund

Abstract

This study have uniquely mad use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the threes objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research have testify the achievements of this through successful nine months out-of-sample forecasts produced from the program codes, with indicating best model choices from the empirical estimation. In addition, the results also provide description of risks produced from the uncertainty Fan Chart, which clearly outlined possible downside and upside risks to tourist visitations in the country. In the conclusion, it was suggested that downside risks to the low level tourist arrival can be managed through collaboration between authorities concerned with the management of tourist arrivals in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2019. "Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model," EconStor Preprints 202547, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:202547
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/202547/1/Tourist_Hol_Update.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. JACKSON Emerson Abraham & TAMUKE Edmund & JABBIE Mohamed, 2019. "Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (Stif) For Monetary Policy Decision In Sierra Leone," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 71(3), pages 31-53, November.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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