Nonparametric Verification of GARCH-Class Models for Selected Polish Exchange Rates and Stock Indices
The iid property of the model’s residuals is a crucial criterion for assessing the fit of the model to the data. GARCH-class models are the most commonly used nonlinear models in financial econometrics. In this paper various uni- and multivariate GARCH-class models were applied to selected Polish financial series. In the research the iid property of the residuals and their absolute values was verified. To this end, the BDS test, the mutual information measure, and, for comparison, the Ljung-Box and Engle tests were used. To calculate p-values the bootstrap procedure was applied in each test. The results indicate that ARMA-GARCH models are generally able to capture the dependencies in the time series analyzed. However, this does not mean that every specified ARMA-GARCH model describes the existing dependencies well enough. The study shows that different parameterizations of the GARCH-class models analyzed have different abilities to describe the dynamics of financial processes. Furthermore, the research indicates that the application of higher lags in a GARCH model may have a crucial impact on the removal of the ARCH effect and, in consequence, on the nonlinearity identification.
Volume (Year): 62 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague|
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995.
"The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, "undated". "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Emekter, Riza & Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Snaith, Sean M., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange excess returns: Tests of asymmetry," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 179-192, July.
- Steven C. Blank, 1991. "“Chaos” in futures markets? A nonlinear dynamical analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 711-728, December.
- Sunil Poshakwale & Victor Murinde, 2001. "Modelling the volatility in East European emerging stock markets: evidence on Hungary and Poland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 445-456.
- Witold Orzeszko, 2010. "Measuring Nonlinear Serial Dependencies Using the Mutual Information Coefficient," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 97-106.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
- Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff, 2002. "Entropy and predictability of stock market returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 291-312, March.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Evžen Kočenda, 1996. "Volatility of a Seemingly Fixed Exchange Rate," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 37-67, November.
- Evžen Kočenda, 1996. "Volatility of a Seemingly Fixed Exchange Rate," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 34(6), pages 37-67, December.
- Kocenda, Evzen, 1995. "Volatility of a Seemingly Fixed Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 70506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hsieh, David A., 1993. "Implications of Nonlinear Dynamics for Financial Risk Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 41-64, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:62:y:2012:i:5:p:430-449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.