Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange excess returns: Tests of asymmetry
This paper examines the nonlinear dynamic behaviors in foreign exchange excess returns of eight currencies. We applied the BDS test and two other nonlinear statistical techniques, the Markov chain, and time reversibility tests to characterize the exchange rate returns dynamics. The results from the BDS test provide strong evidence of nonlinear dependence on the British pound, the Singapore dollar, the South African rand, and the Swedish krone. The Markov chain test shows evidence of a non-random walk and positive serial dependence in all currencies except for the British pound, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. Lastly, evidence of time irreversible and asymmetric dynamic behavior is found in seven currencies with the exception of the Canadian dollar. The results indicate that the asymmetry in the Singapore dollar, the South African rand, and the Swiss franc is due to nonlinearity in the functional form as opposed to non-Gaussian innovations.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2002. "The Performance of Non-linear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 513-42, November.
- Ramsey, J.B. & Rothman, P., 1993.
"Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry,"
93-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Murray Frank & Thanasis Stengos, 1989. "Measuring the Strangeness of Gold and Silver Rates of Return," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 553-567.
- Qi, Min & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 623-640, December.
- McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1991. " Are Stock Returns Predictable? A Test Using Markov Chains," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 239-63, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000.
"The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?,"
NBER Working Papers
7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Conditional Leptokurtosis and Non-Linear Dependence in Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 581-601, October.
- Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005.
"Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
- Alain P. Chaboud & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," International Finance Discussion Papers 752, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005.
"Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
- Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
- David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2001. "Nonlinearities in the black market zloty-dollar exchange rate: some further evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 209-220.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
- Joseph Alba & Donghyun Park, 2005. "Non-linear mean reversion of real exchange rates and purchasing power parity: some evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 701-704.
- Jing Yang & Nikola Gradojevic, 2006. "Non-linear, non-parametric, non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 227-245.
- Laurini, M. P. & Portugal, M. S., 2003. "Markov Switching Based Nonlinear Tests for Market Efficiency Using the R$/US$ Exchange Rate," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_51, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129.
- Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
- Hsieh, David A., 1993. "Implications of Nonlinear Dynamics for Financial Risk Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 41-64, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:19:y:2009:i:3:p:179-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.