The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk
Carry-trade strategies which consist of buying forward high-yield currencies tend to yield positive excess returns when global financial markets are booming, whereas they generate losses during crises. Firstly, we show that the sovereign default risk, which is taken on by investing in high-yield currencies, may increase the magnitude of the gains during the boom periods and the losses during crises. We empirically test for this hypothesis on a sample of 18 emerging currencies over the period from June 2005 to September 2010, the default risk being proxied by the sovereign credit default swap spread. Relying on smooth transition regression (STR) models, we show that default risk contributes to the carry-trade gains during booms, and worsens the losses during busts. Secondly, we turn to the “Fama regression” linking the exchange-rate depreciation to the interest-rate differential. We propose a nonlinear estimation of this equation, explaining the puzzling evolution of its coefficient by the change in the market volatility along the financial cycle. Then, we introduce the default risk into this equation and show that the “forward bias”, usually evidenced by a coefficient smaller than unity in this regression, is somewhat alleviated, as the default risk is significant to explain the exchange-rate change.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010.
"Exchange Rate Flexibility Across Financial Crises,"
2010-08, CEPII research center.
- Marion Kohler, 2010. "Exchange rates during financial crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2007.
"Safe Haven Currencies,"
University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007
2007-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Adrien Verdelhan, 2006.
"A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
217, Society for Computational Economics.
- Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, 02.
- Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-047, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," 2006 Meeting Papers 872, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- V. Coudert & M. Gex, 2008.
"Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators,"
- Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, March.
- Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2007. "Does Risk Aversion Drive Financial Crises? Testing the Predictive Power of Empirical Indicators," Working Papers 2007-02, CEPII research center.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2008.
"Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
- A. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2010. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Working Papers 10-44, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- A. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," NBER Working Papers 14054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995.
"Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Andres Gonzalez & Timo Terasvirta & Dick van Dijk, 2005.
"Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models,"
Research Paper Series
165, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009.
"Carry Trades and Currency Crashes,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Davis, Josh & Pedersen, Niels, 2009.
"Currency carry trade regimes: Beyond the Fama regression,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1375-1389, December.
- Richard Clarida & Josh Davis & Niels Pedersen, 2009. "Currency Carry Trade Regimes: Beyond the Fama Regression," NBER Working Papers 15523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:491-511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.