IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v32y2013icp491-511.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk

Author

Listed:
  • Coudert, Virginie
  • Mignon, Valérie

Abstract

Carry-trade strategies which consist of buying forward high-yield currencies tend to yield positive excess returns when global financial markets are booming, whereas they generate losses during crises. Firstly, we show that the sovereign default risk, which is taken on by investing in high-yield currencies, may increase the magnitude of the gains during the boom periods and the losses during crises. We empirically test for this hypothesis on a sample of 18 emerging currencies over the period from June 2005 to September 2010, the default risk being proxied by the sovereign credit default swap spread. Relying on smooth transition regression (STR) models, we show that default risk contributes to the carry-trade gains during booms, and worsens the losses during busts. Secondly, we turn to the “Fama regression” linking the exchange-rate depreciation to the interest-rate differential. We propose a nonlinear estimation of this equation, explaining the puzzling evolution of its coefficient by the change in the market volatility along the financial cycle. Then, we introduce the default risk into this equation and show that the “forward bias”, usually evidenced by a coefficient smaller than unity in this regression, is somewhat alleviated, as the default risk is significant to explain the exchange-rate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:491-511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.05.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560612001349
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    3. Andrés González & Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Yukai Yang, 1910. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," CREATES Research Papers 2017-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    5. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    6. Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2009. "Dollar appreciation in 2008: safe haven, carry trades, dollar shortage and overhedging," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    8. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    9. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    10. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
    11. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
    12. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    13. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    14. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    15. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    16. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & McClelland, Andrew, 2009. "The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1033-1038, June.
    17. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    18. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers wp05-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    19. Fang Liu & Piet Sercu, 2009. "The Forex Forward Puzzle: The Career Risk Hypothesis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 371-404, August.
    20. Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "Exchange rate volatility across financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3010-3018, November.
    22. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    23. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Clarida, Richard & Davis, Josh & Pedersen, Niels, 2009. "Currency carry trade regimes: Beyond the Fama regression," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1375-1389, December.
    25. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, March.
    26. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
    27. Gabriele Galati & Alexandra Heath & Patrick McGuire, 2007. "Evidence of carry trade activity," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    28. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-661, June.
    29. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Mark Britten-Jones & Anthony Neuberger & Ingmar Nolte, 2011. "Improved Inference in Regression with Overlapping Observations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5-6), pages 657-683, June.
    31. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    32. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
    33. A. Hoffmann, 2012. "Determinants of carry trades in Central and Eastern Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1479-1490, September.
    34. Marion Kohler, 2010. "Exchange rates during financial crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    35. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    36. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    38. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    39. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    40. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lothian, James R., 2016. "Uncovered interest parity: The long and the short of it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
    2. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2015. "Regional integration of the East Asian stock markets: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 136-160.
    3. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Gloria Sarmiento, 2016. "Sovereign Risk and the Real Exchange Rate: A Non-Linear Approach," Borradores de Economia 970, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-127.
    5. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
    6. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "On the Path to Old-Age Poverty - Assessing the Impact of the Funded Riester Pension," IMK Report 73e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Doskov, Nikolay & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Empirical evidence on the currency carry trade, 1900–2012," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-389.
    8. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.
    9. Virginie Coudert & Cyriac Guillaumin & Hélene Raymond, 2014. "Looking at the Other Side of Carry Trades: Are there any Safe Haven Currencies?," Working Papers 2014-03, CEPII research center.
    10. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "What explains the initial return of initial public offerings after the 1997 Asian financial crisis? Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 89-113.
    11. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    12. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2016. "Assessing Euro crises from a time varying international CAPM approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 197-208.
    13. Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho, 2016. "Assessing Euro Crises from a Time Varying International CAPM Approach," Working Paper series 16-03, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    14. Grossmann, Axel & Lee, Allissa A. & Simpson, Marc W., 2014. "Forward premium anomaly of the British pound and the euro," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 140-156.
    15. Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    17. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2015. "Australian Dollar carry trades: Time varying probabilities and determinants," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 64-75.
    18. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981, April.
    19. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "Auf dem Weg in die Altersarmut - Bilanz der Einführung der kapitalgedeckten Riester-Rente," IMK Report 73-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Dramane Coulibaly & Hubert Kempf, 2017. "Inflation Targeting and the Forward Bias Puzzle in Emerging Countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    21. Loring, Grace & Lucey, Brian, 2013. "An analysis of forward exchange rate biasedness across developed and developing country currencies: Do observed patterns persist out of sample?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 14-28.
    22. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    23. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," BIS Working Papers 716, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry trades; UIP puzzle; Default risk; Smooth transition regression models;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:491-511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.