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Safe Haven Currencies

  • Ranaldo, Angelo
  • Söderlind, Paul

We study high-frequency exchange rate movements over the sample 1993-2007. We document that the (Swiss) franc, euro, Japanese yen and the pound tend to appreciate against the U.S. dollar when (a) S&P has negative returns; (b) U.S. bond prices increase; and (c) when currency markets become more volatile. In these situations, the franc appreciates also against the other currencies, while the pound depreciates. The safe haven properties correspond to the carry trader's losses. They materialize over different time granularities (from a few hours to several days), during both "ordinary days" and crisis episodes and show some non-linear features.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7249.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7249
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  1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp198, IIIS.
  2. Jacob Gyntelberg & Eli M Remolona, 2007. "Risk in carry trades: a look at target currencies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
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  7. Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  22. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  36. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  37. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1991. "Tests for a Systematic Risk Component in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 587-602, May.
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