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The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

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  • Christiansen, Charlotte
  • Ranaldo, Angelo
  • Söderlind, Paul

Abstract

We explain the currency carry trade (CT) performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical CT strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean reverting in regimes of high foreign exchange volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions. Our regime-dependent pricing model provides significantly smaller pricing errors than a traditional model. Thus, the CT performance is better explained by a time-varying systematic risk that increases in volatile markets, suggesting a partial resolution of the uncovered interest parity puzzle.

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  • Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 1107-1125, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:46:y:2011:i:04:p:1107-1125_00
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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