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Realized bond—stock correlation: Macroeconomic announcement effects

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  • Charlotte Christiansen
  • Angelo Ranaldo

Abstract

The authors investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. It was found that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond—stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on the sign of the realized bond—stock correlation, which has recently gone from positive to negative. Macroeconomic announcement effects on realized bond and stock volatilities are also investigated. Our results are robust across 8:30 A.M. and 10:00 A.M. announcements. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:439—469, 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2007. "Realized bond—stock correlation: Macroeconomic announcement effects," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 439-469, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:27:y:2007:i:5:p:439-469
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    2. Opschoor, Anne & van Dijk, Dick & van der Wel, Michel, 2014. "Predicting volatility and correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 435-447.
    3. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Kim, Suk-Joong & Salem, Leith & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "The role of macroeconomic news in sovereign CDS markets: Domestic and spillover news effects from the U.S., the Eurozone and China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 208-224.
    5. Chuliá, Helena & Martens, Martin & Dijk, Dick van, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on S&P100 stock returns, volatilities and correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 834-839, April.
    6. Peter Løchte Jørgensen & Domenico De Giovanni, 2010. "Time Charters with Purchase Options in Shipping: Valuation and Risk Management," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 399-430.
    7. Kemper, Kris & Lee, Allissa & Simkins, Betty J., 2012. "Diversification revisited," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 304-316.
    8. Audrino, Francesco & Corsi, Fulvio, 2010. "Modeling tick-by-tick realized correlations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2372-2382, November.
    9. Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2015. "Predictable Return Distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 114-132, March.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
    11. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:now:jnlcfr:104.00000043 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2010. "The properties of realized correlation: Evidence from the French, German and Greek equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 273-290, August.
    14. Joseph, Kishore & Garcia, Philip, 2016. "Intraday Market Effects in Electronic Soybean Futures Market during Non-Trading and Trading Hour Announcements," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235772, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. repec:bis:bisbps:95 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2013. "Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Stein, Michael & Islami, Mevlud & Lindemann, Jens, 2012. "Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence," Discussion Papers 24/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Deimante Teresiene, 2009. "Lithuanian stock market analysis using a set of Garch models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 349-360, August.
    21. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:668-688 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Campbell, John Y. & Sunderam, Adi & Viceira, Luis M., 2017. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 263-301, September.
    23. Høg, Esben, 2008. "Volatility and realized quadratic variation of differenced returns : A wavelet method approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-06, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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