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The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market

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  • Sunil Poshakwale

Abstract

This paper examines the random walk hypothesis in the emerging Indian stock market using daily data on individual stocks. The statistical evidence in this paper rejects the random walk hypothesis. The results suggest that daily returns earned by individual stocks and by an equally weighted portfolio show significant non–linear dependence and persistent volatility effects. The non–linear dependence takes the form of ARCH–type conditional heteroskedasticity and does not appear to be caused by nonstationarity of underlying economic variables. Though conditional volatility is time varying, it does not explain expected returns.

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  • Sunil Poshakwale, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9‐10), pages 1275-1299.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:29:y:2002:i:9-10:p:1275-1299
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00469
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    Cited by:

    1. Emekter, Riza & Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Snaith, Sean M., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange excess returns: Tests of asymmetry," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 179-192, July.
    2. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    3. Sanjay Rajagopal & Patrick Hays, 2012. "Return Persistence in the Indian Real Estate Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 15(3), pages 283-305.
    4. Gourishankar S Hiremath & Bandi Kamaiah, 2010. "Nonlinear Dependence in Stock Returns: Evidences from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 69-85, January.
    5. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    6. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Robert J Bianchi & Adam E Clements & Michael E Drew, 2009. "HACking at Non-linearity: Evidence from Stocks and Bonds," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 244, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    8. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Kumari, Jyoti, 2013. "Stock Returns Predictability and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 52581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
    10. Lakshman Alles, 2008. "The cost of downside protection and the time diversification issue in South Asian stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 835-843.
    11. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Su, Hsin-Mei & Tzou, Yi-Pin, 2010. "Efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets for four Asian Countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 284-294, September.
    12. Poshakwale, Sunil & Theobald, Michael, 2004. "Market capitalisation, cross-correlations, the lead/lag structure and microstructure effects in the Indian stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 385-400, October.
    13. Kian-Ping Lim & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Melvin J. Hinich, 2009. "The Weak-form Efficiency of Chinese Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 133-163, May.
    14. Kevin Rink, 2023. "The predictive ability of technical trading rules: an empirical analysis of developed and emerging equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(4), pages 403-456, December.
    15. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Kumari, Jyoti, 2014. "Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 58378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Naimat U Khan & Sajjad Khan, 2016. "Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 8(SE), pages 1-18, March.
    17. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Some Further Evidence on the Behaviour of Stock Returns in India," MPRA Paper 48518, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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