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Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

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  • Naimat U Khan

    (Institute of Management Studies, UoP, Peshawar)

  • Sajjad Khan

    (Northern University, Nowshera)

Abstract

This research is an empirical investigation of the weak form of efficiency of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE-100) Index, which is the prominent index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (formerly Karachi Stock Exchange). The contribution of this paper is to analyze a longer 24 years’ sample period (1991-2015) with three frequencies of data – daily, weekly and monthly index returns. The results show that return series of three frequencies have a negatively skewed, leptokurtic and non-normal distribution. The non-parametric Phillips-Perron (PP) test and parametric Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test rejected the non-stationarity hypothesis for index returns at the level for all daily, weekly and monthly data. The auto-correlation of randomness for the chosen period rejected the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for daily and weekly index returns but documented the existence of RWH for monthly index returns. Lastly, the findings of run tests show market inefficiency on daily and weekly data and efficiency for monthly returns. The findings are not consistent with efficiency theory as the stock returns do not follow the random walk hypothesis and hence nullify weak form of efficiency for daily and weekly returns. However, the research documents weak-form of efficiency for monthly returns; the existence of randomness in monthly data is not surprising for an emerging market like Pakistan which does not have a long memory to remember previous monthly prices. Positioned upon weak form of efficiency assumption, the investors on the KSE can make abnormal returns on the basis of historical share prices (Malhotra, Tandon, & Tandon, 2015). The concept of market efficiency is important for analysts, for investor’s investment decisions, and regulators of stock exchange to improve the flow of information. Further research can be done with more sophisticated techniques of testing weak form of efficiency

Suggested Citation

  • Naimat U Khan & Sajjad Khan, 2016. "Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 8(SE), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bec:imsber:v:8:y:2016:i:se:p:1-18
    DOI: dx.doi.org/10.22547/BER/8.SE.1
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Kashif & Rana Palwishah & Rizwan Raheem Ahmed & Jolita Vveinhardt & Dalia Streimikiene, 2021. "Do investors herd? An examination of Pakistan stock exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2090-2105, April.
    2. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
    3. Jalal Shah & Attaullah Shah, 2018. "Contrarian and Momentum Investment Strategies in Pakistan Stock Exchange," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(3), pages 253-282.
    4. Erdas Mehmet Levent, 2019. "Validity of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs): Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 399-428, December.
    5. Mohsin Sadaqat & Hilal Anwar Butt, 2017. "Role of Liquidity in Explaining Anomalous Returns: Evidence from Emerging Market," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weak form; efficient market hypothesis; random walk hypothesis; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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