IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v12y2011i3p217-237.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are GCC stock markets predictable?

Author

Listed:
  • Bley, Jorg

Abstract

Weak-form efficiency in the stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council is examined using daily, weekly, and monthly index data for the 10-year period 2000-2009. Various variance ratio test specifications with specific homo- and heteroscedasticity assumptions found evidence of nonlinear dependence for the daily data, supporting the evidence in favor of a rejection of the random walk. A correction procedure for thin and nonsynchronous trading was applied but failed to produce significantly different results. Following an ARCH based model building procedure, conditional heteroscedasticity models are applied to the log return series. Significant differences in forecasting performance cannot be detected. The random walk hypothesis is generally rejected for daily but differences appear across markets using weekly and monthly data. The increased involvement of foreign institutional investors may play a role in the increased serial correlation in stock returns in the most recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:12:y:2011:i:3:p:217-237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014111000185
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crowder, William J, 1996. "A Reexamination of Long-Run PPP: The Case of Canada, the UK, and the US," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 64-78, February.
    2. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    3. John M. Griffin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Selim Topaloglu, 2003. "The Dynamics of Institutional and Individual Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2285-2320, December.
    4. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    6. Pablo Marshall & Eduardo Walker, 2002. "Asymmetric Reaction to Information and Serial Dependence of Short-run Returns," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5, pages 273-292, November.
    7. Bley, Jorg & Chen, Kim Heng, 2006. "Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets: The dawn of a new era," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 75-91, September.
    8. Jeffrey E. Jarrett, 2010. "Efficient markets hypothesis and daily variation in small Pacific‐basin stock markets," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(12), pages 1128-1139, November.
    9. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    10. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1990. "Volatility forecasting without data-snooping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 399-421, August.
    11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    12. Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. "Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
    13. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    14. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the informational efficiency of the GCC equity markets: Evidence from bootstrap simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-54, January.
    15. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    16. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Erratum [Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies]," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), October.
    17. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    18. Philip Hamill & Kwaku Opong & Dan Sprevak, 2000. "The behaviour of Irish ISEQ index: some new empirical tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 693-700.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    20. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 41-56.
    21. Ismail Genc & Abdullah Jubain & Abdullah Al-Mutairi, 2010. "Economic versus financial integration or decoupling between the US and the GCC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(20), pages 1577-1583.
    22. Ali F. Darrat & Khaled Elkhal & Sam R. Hakim, 2000. "On the Integration of Emerging Stock Markets in the Middle East," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 119-129, December.
    23. Butler, Kirt C. & Malaikah, S. J., 1992. "Efficiency and inefficiency in thinly traded stock markets: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 197-210, February.
    24. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, April.
    25. Darrat, Ali F & Zhong, Maosen, 2000. "On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 105-124, August.
    26. Mohamed A. El-Erian & Manmohan S. Kumar, 1995. "Emerging Equity Markets in Middle Eastern Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 313-343, June.
    27. Abraham Abraham & Fazal J. Seyyed & Sulaiman A. Alsakran, 2002. "Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 469-480, August.
    28. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Beyhan, Aydin & Yao, Lee J., 2010. "Market efficiency and international diversification: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 313-339, April.
    29. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    30. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
    31. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    32. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    33. Badrinath, S G & Kale, Jayant R & Noe, Thomas H, 1995. "Of Shepherds, Sheep, and the Cross-autocorrelations in Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 401-430.
    34. Lokman Gunduz & Mohammed Omran, 2001. "Stochastic Trends and Stock Prices in Emerging Markets: The Case of Middle East and North Africa Region," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 5(17), pages 1-22.
    35. Ananth Rao, 2008. "Analysis of volatility persistence in Middle East emerging equity markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 93-111, June.
    36. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    37. Ayadi, O. Felix & Pyun, C. S., 1994. "An application of variance ratio test to the Korean securities market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, September.
    38. Osamah M. Al‐Khazali & David K. Ding & Chong Soo Pyun, 2007. "A New Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Emerging Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 303-317, May.
    39. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
    40. Sunil Poshakwale, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9‐10), pages 1275-1299.
    41. Fayyad, Abdallah & Daly, Kevin, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns: Comparing GCC countries with the UK and USA," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, March.
    42. Jorge L. Urrutia, 1995. "Tests Of Random Walk And Market Efficiency For Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, September.
    43. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    44. Buguk, Cumhur & Wade Brorsen, B., 2003. "Testing weak-form market efficiency: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 579-590.
    45. Sunil Poshakwale, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9&10), pages 1275-1299.
    46. Stoll, Hans R & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Stock Market Structure and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 37-71.
    47. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang, 1994. "Variance-Ratio Tests: Small-Sample Properties with an Application to International Output Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 177-186, April.
    48. Donaldson, R Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1996. "A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 333-383.
    49. Kuo-Ping Chang & Kuo-Shiuan Ting, 2000. "A variance ratio test of the random walk hypothesis for Taiwan's stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 525-532.
    50. Ojah, Kalu & Karemera, David, 1999. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests of Latin American Emerging Equity Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 57-72, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Everton Dockery, 2021. "Testing for efficiency in the Saudi stock market: does corporate governance change matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 61-90, July.
    2. Fathia Elleuch Lahyani, 2014. "Are MENA and Pacific Basin Stock Equity Markets Predictable?," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(4), pages 21582440145, December.
    3. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Some Further Evidence on the Behaviour of Stock Returns in India," MPRA Paper 48518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    5. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
    7. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta, 2011. "Are ASEAN stock market efficient? Evidence from univariate and multivariate variance ratio tests," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201113, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    8. Abullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    9. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    10. Kinga Niemczak & Graham Smith, 2013. "Middle Eastern stock markets: absolute, evolving and relative efficiency," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 181-198, February.
    11. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Su, Hsin-Mei & Tzou, Yi-Pin, 2010. "Efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets for four Asian Countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 284-294, September.
    12. Yen-Hsien Lee, 2010. "The Impact Of Deregulation On Stock Market Efficiency," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 165-176.
    13. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    14. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the informational efficiency of the GCC equity markets: Evidence from bootstrap simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-54, January.
    15. Jamaani, Fouad & Roca, Eduardo, 2015. "Are the regional Gulf stock markets weak-form efficient as single stock markets and as a regional stock market?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 221-246.
    16. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    17. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    18. Assaf, Ata, 2016. "MENA stock market volatility persistence: Evidence before and after the financial crisis of 2008," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 222-240.
    19. Ghada Abbas, 2014. "Testing Random Walk Behavior in the Damascus Securities Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 317-325, October.
    20. Basher ABUZAROUR, 2001. "Testing Random Walk Behavior and Market Efficiency: Evidence from New Emerging Equity Markets in the Middle East," Middle East and North Africa 330400002, EcoMod.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:12:y:2011:i:3:p:217-237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.