IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rej/journl/v22y2019i72p60-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS

Author

Listed:
  • Siva Kiran
  • Prabhakar Rao.R

Abstract

This study aims at examining the efficiency of stock returns of BRICS markets. Here we consider the daily data from 25th September 1997 to 31st March 2018. This study employs variance ratio tests for linear dependencies and BDSL test for nonlinear dependence. Further, the entire period of study is divided into sub-periods such as pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods to understand the level of efficiency in different time periods. The results of variance ratio tests show that Brazil and China markets are weak-form efficient in all time periods while Russia and South Africa are a weak form efficient in the full period, crisis and post-crisis periods but not in pre-crisis period. With regard to Indian stock markets, the markets are found to be weakly efficient during pre-crisis and crisis period while market inefficiency is observed in full period and post-crisis period. However, the results of the nonlinear test show that all the BRICS markets are rejecting the random walk hypothesis due to the nonlinear dependence in all time periods of study.

Suggested Citation

  • Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:72:p:60-77
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rejournal.eu/sites/rejournal.versatech.ro/files/articole/2019-06-25/3560/5sivakiran.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grieb, Terrance & Reyes, Mario G, 1999. "Random Walk Tests for Latin American Equity Indexes and Individual Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 371-383, Winter.
    2. Husni Charif & Ata Assaf, 2017. "Market Efficiency in the MENA Equity Markets: Evidence from Newly Developed Tests and Regime Change," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 6, pages 15-32.
    3. Graham Smith & Keith Jefferis & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2002. "African stock markets: multiple variance ratio tests of random walks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 475-484.
    4. Geoffrey Ngene & Kenneth A. Tah & Ali F. Darrat, 2017. "The random-walk hypothesis revisited: new evidence on multiple structural breaks in emerging markets," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 88-106, January.
    5. Maria Rosa Borges, 2010. "Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 711-726.
    6. Karemera, David & Ojah, Kalu & Cole, John A, 1999. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 171-188, September.
    7. Beltratti, Andrea & Bortolotti, Bernardo & Caccavaio, Marianna, 2016. "Stock market efficiency in China: Evidence from the split-share reform," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 125-137.
    8. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    9. Graham Smith, 2007. "Random walks in Middle Eastern stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 587-596.
    10. L. Spierdijk & J.A. Bikker, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors," Working Papers 12-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    11. Abraham Abraham & Fazal J. Seyyed & Sulaiman A. Alsakran, 2002. "Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 469-480, August.
    12. Kian-Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2009. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? Further evidence from a battery of nonlinearity tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 147-155.
    13. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    14. Regis Augusto Ely, 2011. "Returns Predictability and Stock Market Efficiency in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 571-584.
    15. Fifield, Suzanne G.M. & Jetty, Juliana, 2008. "Further evidence on the efficiency of the Chinese stock markets: A note," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-361, September.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    17. Aymen Ben Rejeb & Adel Boughrara, 2014. "Financial liberalization and emerging stock market efficiency: an empirical analysis of structural changes," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 230-245, September.
    18. Buguk, Cumhur & Wade Brorsen, B., 2003. "Testing weak-form market efficiency: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 579-590.
    19. Sunil Poshakwale, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9&10), pages 1275-1299.
    20. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
    21. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    22. Jyoti Gupta & Sardana Sankalp, 2017. "The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Market Efficiency: An Empirical Analysis of the Indian Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(4), pages 225-252, April.
    23. Ojah, Kalu & Karemera, David, 1999. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests of Latin American Emerging Equity Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 57-72, May.
    24. H. R. Seddighi & W. Nian, 2004. "The Chinese stock exchange market: operations and efficiency," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 785-797.
    25. Sharma, J. L. & Kennedy, Robert E., 1977. "A Comparative Analysis of Stock Price Behavior on the Bombay, London, and New York Stock Exchanges," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 391-413, September.
    26. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    27. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    28. Chen, Willa W. & Deo, Rohit S., 2006. "The Variance Ratio Statistic At Large Horizons," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 206-234, April.
    29. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2007:i:3:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Mobarek, Asma & Fiorante, Angelo, 2014. "The prospects of BRIC countries: Testing weak-form market efficiency," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 217-232.
    31. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kyophilavong, Phouphet, 2014. "New evidence from the random walk hypothesis for BRICS stock indices: a wavelet unit root test approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-41.
    32. Darrat, Ali F & Zhong, Maosen, 2000. "On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 105-124, August.
    33. Terrance Grieb & Mario G. Reyes, 1999. "Random Walk Tests For Latin American Equity Indexes And Individual Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 371-383, December.
    34. OPREAN Camelia, 2012. "Testing Informational Efficiency: The Case Of U.E. And Bric Emergent Markets," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 7(3), pages 94-112, December.
    35. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 511-515.
    36. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
    37. Kian-Ping Lim & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Melvin J. Hinich, 2009. "The Weak-form Efficiency of Chinese Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 133-163, May.
    38. Eduardo Jose Araujo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2004. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for equity markets: evidence from China, Hong Kong and Singapore," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 255-258.
    39. Dat Bue Lock, 2007. "The Taiwan stock market does follow a random walk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(3), pages 1-8.
    40. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Kumari, Jyoti, 2014. "Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 58378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Ayadi, O. Felix & Pyun, C. S., 1994. "An application of variance ratio test to the Korean securities market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, September.
    42. Osamah M. Al‐Khazali & David K. Ding & Chong Soo Pyun, 2007. "A New Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Emerging Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 303-317, May.
    43. Sunil Poshakwale, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9‐10), pages 1275-1299.
    44. Jorge L. Urrutia, 1995. "Tests Of Random Walk And Market Efficiency For Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, September.
    45. Huber, Peter, 1995. "Random Walks in Stock Exchange Prices and the Vienna Stock Exchange," Economics Series 2, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laurel PASRICHA & Neelam DHANDA, 2022. "The past, the present and the prospective future of efficient market hypothesis: a theoretical and empirical investigation of international stock markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(631), S), pages 89-106, Summer.
    2. Soumya Ganguly & Amalendu Bhunia, 2022. "Testing volatility and relationship among BRICS stock market returns," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-15, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Some Further Evidence on the Behaviour of Stock Returns in India," MPRA Paper 48518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Everton Dockery, 2021. "Testing for efficiency in the Saudi stock market: does corporate governance change matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 61-90, July.
    3. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    5. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    6. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    7. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    8. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    9. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    10. Abullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    11. Fathia Elleuch Lahyani, 2014. "Are MENA and Pacific Basin Stock Equity Markets Predictable?," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(4), pages 21582440145, December.
    12. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Weak-form market efficiency in European emerging and developed stock markets," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 159, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    13. Boya, Christophe M., 2019. "From efficient markets to adaptive markets: Evidence from the French stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-165.
    14. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 117-126, June.
    15. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the informational efficiency of the GCC equity markets: Evidence from bootstrap simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-54, January.
    16. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2012. "Variance ratios, structural breaks and nonrandom walk behaviour in the Indian stock returns," MPRA Paper 48710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ghada Abbas, 2014. "Testing Random Walk Behavior in the Damascus Securities Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 317-325, October.
    18. Abdul Razak Abdul Hadi & Eddy Tat Hiung Yap & Zalina Zainudin, 2019. "The Effects of Relative Strength of USD and Overnight Policy Rate on Performance of Malaysian Stock Market – Evidence from 1980 through 2015," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    19. Amira Akl Ahmed, 2014. "Evolving and relative efficiency of MENA stock markets: evidence from rolling joint variance ratio tests," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 91-126, May.
    20. Rico Belda, Paz, 2013. "No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35/Nonlinearity and Asymmetry in the Generator Process of Ibex35 Index," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 555-576, Septiembr.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weak Form Efficiency; Variance ratio tests; BDSL test; BRICS Stock Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:72:p:60-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Radu Lupu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frasero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.