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Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration

  • Richards, Anthony J.

This paper is a response to the literature that tests for cointegration between national stock market indices. It argues that apparent findings of cointegration in other studies may often be due to the use of asymptotic, rather than small-sample, critical values. In fact, economic theory suggests that cointegration is unlikely to be observed in efficient markets. However, this paper finds some evidence for the long-horizon predictability of relative returns, and the existence of “winner-loser” reversals across 16 national equity markets. A conclusion is that national stock market indices include a common world component and two country-specific components, one permanent and one transitory.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304-3932(95)01225-7
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 631-654

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:36:y:1995:i:3:p:631-654
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  18. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
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