IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v20y2009i1p13-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Diamandis, Panayiotis F.

Abstract

This paper examines long-run relationships between four Latin America stock markets and a mature stock market that of the US. We estimate both the autoregressive and moving average representations of a VAR model as suggested by Johansen [Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254, Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models, Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.] using weekly observations for the period January 1988-July 2006. The main finding of the analysis suggests that there is one long-run relationship among the five equity markets. Application of the Gonzalo and Granger [Gonzalo, J., & Granger, C. W. J. (1995). Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 27-35.] methodology indicates that the examined stock markets are partially integrated, while there is also evidence that the four stock markets of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) together with the US stock market have four significant common permanent components, which drive this system of equity markets in the long run. Finally, we show that although cointegration exists there are small long-run benefits from international portfolio diversification since the stock prices adjust very slowly to these common trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:13-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044-0283(09)00017-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2001. "Long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 563-587, August.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    3. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 571-581.
    4. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    5. Tom Engsted & Carsten Tanggaard, 2004. "The Comovement of US and UK Stock Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 593-607.
    6. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1519-1554.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    8. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 95-124.
    9. Sephton, Peter S., 1995. "Response surface estimates of the KPSS stationarity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 255-261, March.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 383-397.
    11. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    12. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
    13. Garrett, Ian & Spyrou, Spyros, 1999. "Common Stochastic Trends in Emerging Equity Markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(6), pages 649-660, December.
    14. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, pages 27-35.
    15. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    16. DeFusco, Richard A & Geppert, John M & Tsetsekos, George P, 1996. "Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 343-363, May.
    17. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2002. "Measuring financial and economic integration with equity prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 879-903, November.
    18. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    19. Chung, Pin J. & Liu, Donald J., 1994. "Common stochastic trends in pacific rim stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 241-259.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    21. Patricia Fraser & Oluwatobi Oyefeso, 2005. "US, UK and European Stock Market Integration," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 161-181.
    22. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
    23. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
    24. Davies, Andrew, 2006. "Testing for international equity market integration using regime switching cointegration techniques," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 305-321.
    25. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
    26. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2007. "A simple modification to improve the finite sample properties of Ng and Perron's unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 12-19, January.
    27. Manolis Syllignakis & Georgios Kouretas, 2010. "German, US and Central and Eastern European Stock Market Integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 607-628.
    28. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April.
    29. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    30. R.K. Kaundal & Sanjeet Sharma, 2010. "Stock Market Integration," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 45(3), pages 3-18, October.
    31. Ratanapakorn, Orawan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Interrelationships among regional stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 91-108.
    32. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    33. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    34. Bracker, Kevin & Docking, Diane Scott & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 1-27.
    35. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 335-359.
    36. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    37. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    38. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
    39. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    40. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    41. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "Common Stochastic Trends In International Stock Markets: Testing In An Integrated Framework," Working Papers 0104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    42. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2005," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 61 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou.
    43. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 181-204.
    44. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    45. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    46. Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1997. "Common Stochastic Trends and Convergence of European Union Stock Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 44-57, January.
    47. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    48. Taylor, Mark P & Tonks, Ian, 1989. "The Internationalisation of Stock Markets and the Abolition of U.K. Exchange Control," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 332-336.
    49. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    50. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    51. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    52. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
    53. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
    54. Francis, Bill B. & Leachman, Lori L., 1998. "Superexogeneity and the dynamic linkages among international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-492, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 832-844.
    2. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice O. & Jean Louis, Rosmy & Vo, Tuan Kiet, 2015. "The transmission of market shocks and bilateral linkages: Evidence from emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 349-357.
    3. Dorota Witkowska & Krzysztof Kompa & Aleksandra Matuszewska-Janica, 2012. "Analysis of Linkages between Central and Eastern European Capital Markets," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 12, pages 19-34.
    4. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2013. "Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 817-828, March.
    5. Abu Bakar, Norhidayah & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "The Dynamic Linkages between Islamic Index and the Major Stock Markets: New Evidence from Wavelet time-scale decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 56977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Sarmiento-Sabogal, Julio, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of the Colombian Stock Market Reaction to the US Market: Evidence from a Casewise Bootstrap Approach - Un’analisi empirica della reazione del mercato azionario colombiano al," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, pages 57-67.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    8. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 207-218.
    9. Balli, Faruk & Hajhoj, Hassan Rafdan & Basher, Syed Abul & Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem, 2015. "An analysis of returns and volatility spillovers and their determinants in emerging Asian and Middle Eastern countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 311-325.
    10. Boubaker, Heni & Raza, Syed Ali, 2016. "On the dynamic dependence and asymmetric co-movement between the US and Central and Eastern European transition markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 459(C), pages 9-23.
    11. Yang, Chunxia & Chen, Yanhua & Niu, Lei & Li, Qian, 2014. "Cointegration analysis and influence rank—A network approach to global stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 168-185.
    12. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Dynamic convergence of commodity futures: Not all types of commodities are alike," Resources Policy, Elsevier, pages 150-160.
    13. Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2010. "Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Financial Spillover to Asian and Latin American Markets in Global Financial Turmoil," Working Papers 1001, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    14. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Rocío Durán Vázquez & Leticia Armenta Fraire, 2012. "Conditional Correlation Between Oil and Stock Market Returns: The Case of Mexico," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, October.
    15. Cardona, Laura & Gutiérrez, Marcela & Agudelo, Diego A., 2017. "Volatility transmission between US and Latin American stock markets: Testing the decoupling hypothesis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 115-127.
    16. Walid Chkili, 2012. "Is currency risk priced for emerging stock markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2267-2280.
    17. Solarin Sakiru Adebola & Jauhari Dahalan, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Markets Integration in Selected African Countries," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 166-177, May.
    18. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, pages 504-511.
    19. repec:eee:ememar:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Joseph J. French & Wei-Xuan Li, 2012. "A note on US institutional equity flows to Brazil," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 298-315, August.
    21. Güloğlu, Bülent & Kaya, Pınar & Aydemir, Resul, 2016. "Volatility transmission among Latin American stock markets under structural breaks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 330-340.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:13-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.