IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America

  • Diamandis, Panayiotis F.
Registered author(s):

    This paper examines long-run relationships between four Latin America stock markets and a mature stock market that of the US. We estimate both the autoregressive and moving average representations of a VAR model as suggested by Johansen [Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254, Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models, Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.] using weekly observations for the period January 1988-July 2006. The main finding of the analysis suggests that there is one long-run relationship among the five equity markets. Application of the Gonzalo and Granger [Gonzalo, J., & Granger, C. W. J. (1995). Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 27-35.] methodology indicates that the examined stock markets are partially integrated, while there is also evidence that the four stock markets of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) together with the US stock market have four significant common permanent components, which drive this system of equity markets in the long run. Finally, we show that although cointegration exists there are small long-run benefits from international portfolio diversification since the stock prices adjust very slowly to these common trends.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W4F-4W0SK1R-1/2/88b3f01273c3745f55872917f629dc04
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Global Finance Journal.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 13-30

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:13-30
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Bracker, Kevin & Docking, Diane Scott & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
    3. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2005," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 61 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Taylor, Mark P & Tonks, Ian, 1989. "The Internationalisation of Stock Markets and the Abolition of U.K. Exchange Control," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 332-36, May.
    6. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2007. "A simple modification to improve the finite sample properties of Ng and Perron's unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 12-19, January.
    8. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
    9. Garrett, Ian & Spyrou, Spyros, 1999. "Common Stochastic Trends in Emerging Equity Markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(6), pages 649-60, December.
    10. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    11. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    13. DeFusco, Richard A & Geppert, John M & Tsetsekos, George P, 1996. "Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 343-63, May.
    14. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    15. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1999. "The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
    17. Ratanapakorn, Orawan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Interrelationships among regional stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 91-108.
    18. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
    20. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
    21. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
    22. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2002. "Measuring financial and economic integration with equity prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 879-903, November.
    23. Patricia Fraser & Oluwatobi Oyefeso, 2005. "US, UK and European Stock Market Integration," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 161-181.
    24. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    25. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    26. Chung, Pin J. & Liu, Donald J., 1994. "Common stochastic trends in pacific rim stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 241-259.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    28. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    30. Tom Engsted & Carsten Tanggaard, 2004. "The Comovement of US and UK Stock Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 593-607.
    31. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    32. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April.
    33. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    34. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    36. Manolis Syllignakis & Georgios Kouretas, 2010. "German, US and Central and Eastern European Stock Market Integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 607-628, September.
    37. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2001. "Long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 563-587, August.
    38. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    39. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Davies, Andrew, 2006. "Testing for international equity market integration using regime switching cointegration techniques," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 305-321.
    41. Giorgio De Santis & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 1994. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    42. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    43. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
    44. Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1997. "Common Stochastic Trends and Convergence of European Union Stock Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 44-57, January.
    45. Sephton, Peter S., 1995. "Response surface estimates of the KPSS stationarity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 255-261, March.
    46. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-204.
    47. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
    48. Francis, Bill B. & Leachman, Lori L., 1998. "Superexogeneity and the dynamic linkages among international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-492, June.
    49. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    50. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "Common Stochastic Trends In International Stock Markets: Testing In An Integrated Framework," Working Papers 0104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    51. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-83, August.
    52. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    53. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:13-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.