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Capital Markets Integration and Cointegration: Testing for the Correct Specification of Stock Market Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Maria-Eleni K. Agoraki

    () (Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Peloponnese Antikalamos, GR-24100 Kalamata, Greece)

  • Dimitris A. Georgoutsos

    () (Department of Accounting and Finance, Athens University of Economics and Business, 76 Patission Street, GR−10434 Athens, Greece)

  • Georgios P. Kouretas

    () (IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, FR-75006 Paris, France
    Department of Business Administration, Athens University of Economics and Business, 76 Patission Street, GR−10434 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a comprehensive Vector Autoregression Model consisting of five variables; the stock market and price indices of pairs of countries, as well as their bilateral nominal exchange rate. Then, we show that under certain long-run restrictions, our approach encompasses a large number of specifications encountered in the voluminous literature on testing for capital integration with cointegration techniques. This approach minimizes the risk of accepting the null of no cointegration between the equity price indices because of the introduction of additional stochastic trends through the transformation of those indices on a “real or nominal US dollar” basis. Furthermore, other interesting long run specifications emerge either with I ( 1 ) only stochastic shocks or with the presence of some I ( 2 ) disturbances characterizing the system. We apply the testing methodology on monthly data for the US, UK, Germany, and Japan for the period January 1980–May 2019. The main findings provide partial support in favor of cointegration, and therefore for capital markets integration, among stock market indices when proper attention is given to issues like the identification and temporal stability of the cointegration vectors as well as the choice of units that the stock indices are expressed in.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria-Eleni K. Agoraki & Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2019. "Capital Markets Integration and Cointegration: Testing for the Correct Specification of Stock Market Indices," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:4:p:186-:d:295883
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chan, Kam C & Gup, Benton E & Pan, Ming-Shiun, 1992. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Prices in Major Asian Markets and the United States," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 289-307, May.
    2. Katarina Juselius, 1999. "Models and relations in economics and econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-290.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & James C. Orlando, 2016. "Linkages Between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 143-153, April.
    4. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    5. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    6. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    7. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-204.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Imdadul Haque, 2020. "The Growth of Private Sector and Financial Development in Saudi Arabia," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International stock markets; I ( 2 ) cointegration analysis; common trends; identification; purchasing power parity; temporal stability;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G - Financial Economics

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