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Models and relations in economics and econometrics

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  • Katarina Juselius

Abstract

Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady-states, speed of adjustment, feedback and interaction effects, and driving forces are addressed within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model. The interpretation and analysis of common driving trends are related to the notion of shocks or disturbances to a system, distinguishing between permanent and transitory, and anticipated and unanticipated effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius, 1999. "Models and relations in economics and econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-290.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:6:y:1999:i:2:p:259-290
    DOI: 10.1080/13501789900000017
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    Cited by:

    1. Cushman, David O., 2008. "Long-run PPP in a system context: No favorable evidence after all for the U.S., Germany, and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 413-424, December.
    2. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 15(3), pages 145-176, September.
    3. Sakarya, Burchan, 2014. "Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Yurtdışı Borçlanma ve Küresel Likidite
      [Foreign Borrowing in the Turkish Banking Sector and the Global Liquidity]
      ," MPRA Paper 69197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Peter Rowland & Hugo Oliveros, 2003. "Colombian Purchasing Power Parity Analysed Using A Framework of Multivariate Cointegration," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002150, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Katarina Juselius, 2011. "On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics," Chapters,in: The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 17 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 221-253, March.
    7. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero, 2015. "A Pairwise-Based Approach to Examine the Feldstein-Horioka Condition of International Capital Mobility," Working Papers in Economics 15/01, University of Waikato.
    8. Houssem Eddine Chebbi & Marcelo Olarreaga & Habib Zitouna, 2011. "Trade Openness Andco2emissions In Tunisia," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 29-53.
    9. Pitruzzello, Salvatore, 2004. "Trade Globalization, Economic Performance, and Social Protection: Nineteenth-Century British Laissez-Faire and Post World War II U.S.-Embedded Liberalism," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(04), pages 705-744, October.
    10. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero, 2016. "A pairwise-based approach to examining the Feldstein–Horioka condition of international capital mobility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 279-297, March.
    11. Christer Ljungwall, 2006. "Export-led Growth: Application to China's Provinces, 1978-2001," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 109-126.
    12. Hassler Uwe & Wolters Jürgen, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates? A Comparison between Germany and the US," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 119-129, April.
    13. Imke Brüggemann, 2003. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Germany: A Structural Vector Error Correction Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4, pages 307-339, August.
    14. Everaert, Gerdie, 2003. "Balanced growth and public capital: an empirical analysis with I(2) trends in capital stock data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 741-763, July.
    15. J. Barkley Rosser Jr & Richard P.F. Holt & David Colander, 2010. "European Economics at a Crossroads," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13585.
    16. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 101-119, February.
    17. Iootty, Mariana & Pinto Jr., Helder & Ebeling, Francisco, 2009. "Automotive fuel consumption in Brazil: Applying static and dynamic systems of demand equations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5326-5333, December.
    18. Barbara Dluhosch, 2011. "European Economics at a Crossroads, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Richard P. F. Holt, and David Colander," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 629-631, August.
    19. Cushman, David O., 2007. "A portfolio balance approach to the Canadian-U.S. exchange rate," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 305-320.
    20. Marchionatti, Roberto & Sella, Lisa, 2015. "Is Neo-Walrasian Macroeconomics a Dead End?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201521, University of Turin.
    21. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "Common Stochastic Trends In International Stock Markets: Testing In An Integrated Framework," Working Papers 0104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    22. Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: a post Keynesian interpretation," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td233, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    23. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
    24. Juselius, Katarina & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in Spain: The effect of monetization, financial deregulation, and the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 509-531, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric methodology; macroeconomic inference; cointegrated VAR; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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