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Déterminants du taux de chômage d’équilibre et ajustements sur le marché du travail : une analyse sur données françaises

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  • Laura Gérard-Prenveille

Abstract

[eng] Determinants of the equilibrium unemployment rate and adjustments on the labour market : an analysis using French data.. This article proposes an extension of the determinants of the equilibrium unemployment rate by incorporating technology and capital. With the help of a model of the labour market, we show that the equilibrium unemployment rate can depend on productivity shocks using assumptions that are relatively unrestrictive. At empirical level, the estimation of a structural VAR model using French quarterly data indicates that wage shocks contribute to the persistence of unemployment uniquely in the short term. In the longer term, technological innovation leads to an increase in unemployment combined with a decline in the share of wages, which is in conformity with recent stylised facts. This shock could then be reinterpreted as an excessive substitution of capital for labour stemming from an aversion on the part of firms to the labour factor. [fre] Cet article propose d’élargir les déterminants du taux de chômage d’équilibre en intégrant la technologie et le capital. À l’aide d’une maquette du marché du travail, nous montrons que le chômage d’équilibre peut dépendre des chocs de productivité sous des hypothèses peu restrictives. Au niveau empirique, l’estimation d’un modèle VAR structurel sur données trimestrielles françaises indique que les chocs salariaux contribuent à la persistance du chômage uniquement à court terme. A plus long terme, l’innovation technologique conduit à un accroissement du chômage combiné à une baisse de la part salariale, ce qui est conforme aux faits stylisés récents. Ce choc pourrait alors se réinterpréter comme une substitution excessive du capital au travail provenant d’une aversion des entreprises au facteur travail.

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  • Laura Gérard-Prenveille, 2003. "Déterminants du taux de chômage d’équilibre et ajustements sur le marché du travail : une analyse sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 17-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2003_num_159_3_6910
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2003.6910
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2003.6910
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