IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What goes up sometimes stays up: Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Unemployment Persistence


  • Gianni Amisano

    () (University of Brescia, Italy)

  • Massimiliano Serati

    () (Cattaneo University, Italy)


We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECDcountries byestimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative priorbased on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment ben-efits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the Faust andLeeper (1997) critique. We find widespread hysteresis: demand shocks play adominant role in explaining unemployment also in the medium-run. Moreoverreal wages have low sensitivity to cyclical fluctuations and to labour marketdisequilibria. Our results emphasise the real power of the unions and their in-teractions with structural shocks and other institutions as crucial determinantsof hysteresis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianni Amisano & Massimiliano Serati, 2002. "What goes up sometimes stays up: Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Unemployment Persistence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-116/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20020116

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-1459, Nov.-Dec..
    2. McCormick, Frank, 1979. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits? Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 411-417, April.
    3. John E. Pippenger, 1978. "Interest Arbitrage between Canada and the United States: A New Perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 183-193, May.
    4. Rhee, S Ghon & Chang, Rosita P, 1992. " Intra-day Arbitrage Opportunities in Foreign Exchange and Eurocurrency Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 363-379, March.
    5. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    6. Frank McCormick, 1979. "Covered-interest arbitrage: unexploited profits: comment," International Finance Discussion Papers 132, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Fletcher, Donna J. & Taylor, Larry W., 1994. "A non-parametric analysis of covered interest parity in long-date capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-475, August.
    8. Harold Demsetz, 1968. "The Cost of Transacting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 33-53.
    9. Hogan, Ked & Melvin, Michael & Roberts, Dan J., 1991. "Trade balance news and exchange rates: Is there a policy signal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 90-99, March.
    10. Woodward, R S, 1988. "Some New Evidence on the Profitability of One-Way versus Round-Trip Arbitrage," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 645-652, November.
    11. Husted, Steven & Kitchen, John, 1985. "Some Evidence on the International Transmission of U.S. Money Supply Announcement Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 456-466, November.
    12. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    13. Poitras, Geoffrey, 1988. "Arbitrage boundaries, treasury bills, and covered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 429-445.
    14. Fletcher, Donna J & Taylor, Larry W, 1996. ""Swap" Covered Interest Parity in Long-Date Capital Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 530-538, August.
    15. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
    16. Deardorff, Alan V, 1979. "One-Way Arbitrage and Its Implications for the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 351-364, April.
    17. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-370, April.
    18. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
    19. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 1998. "Intraday effects of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 191-210, February.
    20. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-1226, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Monastiriotis, Vassilis, 2006. "Macro-determinants of UK regional unemployment and the role of employment flexibility," MPRA Paper 44, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. BATTISTI,Michele, 2006. "Assessing persistence in the Italian rate of unemployment in presence of structural breaks and regional asymmetries, 1977 to 2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    3. Holmlund, Bertil & Alexius, Annika, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-25.
    4. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:256-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 29(66), pages 128-173, December.
    6. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    7. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    8. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Papers 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    10. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "The Determinants of Unemployment across OECD Countries," Post-Print halshs-00120584, HAL.
    11. Massimiliano Serati & Michela Martinoia, 2008. "The East-West migration in Europe: skill levels of migrants and their effects on the european labour market," LIUC Papers in Economics 208, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    12. Tafirenyika SUNDE, 2015. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment in Namibia," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 256-274, December.

    More about this item


    unemployment persistence; insiders-outsiders; hysteresis; structural VAR analysis; Bayesian inference;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20020116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.