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Unemployment persistence in Italy. An econometric analysis with multivariate time varying parameter models

This paper investigates the causes of unemployment persistence in Italy, using aggregate quarterly data. We use as reference an insider-outsider model capable of generating hysteresis. In the sample period being analysed, deep structural modifications have affected the Italian economy. For this reason, we work with a time varying parameter reduced form model, experimenting alternative parameter evolution schemes. In this way we are able to describe the dynamic effects on employment, participation and real wages of several phenomena, such as changes in the monetary and fiscal policy indicators and variations in unemployment benefits and labour taxes.

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File URL: http://www.biblio.liuc.it/liucpap/pdf/121.pdf
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Paper provided by Cattaneo University (LIUC) in its series LIUC Papers in Economics with number 121.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:121
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  1. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1995. "The European unemployment dilemma," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Boeri, Tito & Nicoletti, Giuseppe & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2000. "Regulation And Labour Market Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 2420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  5. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier, 1998. "Revisiting European Unemployment : Unemployment, Capital Accumulation and Factor Prices," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GL28.
  7. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
  9. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
  10. Balmaseda, M & Dolado, J-J & Lopez-Salido, D, 1996. "Hysteresis and the Sources of Shocks : A Cross-Country Analysis," Papers 9614, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  11. Daveri, Francesco & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  14. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
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