IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective

  • Marika Karanassou
  • Hector Sala
  • Dennis J. Snower

The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run implies the compartmentalization of macroeconomics. While one branch of the literature models inflation dynamics and estimates the unemployment rate compatible with inflation stability, another one determines the real economic factors that drive the natural rate of unemployment. In the context of the new Phillips curve, we show that frictional growth, i.e. the interplay between lags and growth, generates an inflation-unemployment trade-off in the long run. We thus argue that a holistic framework, such as the chain reaction theory (CRT), should be used to jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. A further attraction of the CRT approach is that it provides a synthesis of the traditional structural macroeconometric models and the (structural) vector autoregressions. Copyright � 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation � 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=joes&volume=24&issue=1&year=2010&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 1-51

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:1-51
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0950-0804

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Héctor & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Belot, M.V.K. & van Ours, J.C., 2000. "Does the Recent Success of some OECD Countries in Lowering their Unemployment Rates lie in the Clever Design of their Labour Market Reforms?," Discussion Paper 2000-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Henry, Brian & Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J, 2000. "Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate: An Account of UK Unemployment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 178-203, January.
  5. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
  6. Xabier Raurich & Hector Sala & Valeri Sorolla, 2005. "Unemployment, growth and fiscal policy: new insights on the hysteresis hypothesis," Working Papers 0502, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  7. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, 08.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  10. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
  11. Fitoussi, J-P & Jestaz, D. & Phelps, E.S. & Zoega, G., 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries : Labor Reforms or Private-Sector Forces ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2000-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  12. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2004. "Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks," Working Papers in Economics 119, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  14. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "Unemployment Invariance," Working Papers 476, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  15. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "Hysteresis and Unemployment," Working papers 430, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  16. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, 01.
  17. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 05-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  18. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "The Rise and Downward Trend of the Natural Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 283-89, May.
  19. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
  20. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Non-linearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate," HWWA Discussion Papers 259, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  21. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  23. Edmund S. Phelps, 1999. "Behind This Structural Boom: The Role of Asset Valuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 63-68, May.
  24. Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 47-104, 04.
  25. Malley, Jim & Moutos, Thomas, 2001. " Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: A Tale of Two "Continents."," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 79-99, March.
  26. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1998. "How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  28. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  29. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2009. "Labour market flexibility and regional unemployment rate dynamics: Spain 1980-1995," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 181-207, 03.
  30. Helpman, Elhanan & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1990. "Real wages, monetary accommodation, and inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 897-911, July.
  31. Edmund Phelps, 1978. "Disinflation without recession: Adaptive guideposts and monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 783-809, December.
  32. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
  34. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2004. "Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 1247, CESifo Group Munich.
  35. Hughes Hallett, A. J. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 303-327, December.
  36. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
  37. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Monetary Persistence, Imperfect Competition, and Staggering Complementarities," IZA Discussion Papers 3033, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  38. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  39. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "The Return of the Long-Run Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 646, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  40. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 7884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2007. "Global Factors, Unemployment Adjustment and the Natural Rate," Kiel Working Papers 1367, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  42. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2008. "The (Ir)Relevance Of The Nru For Policy Making: The Case Of Denmark," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 369-392, 07.
  43. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2004. "The real effects of money growth in dynamic general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 0412, European Central Bank.
  44. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2007. "The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties," Working Papers 604, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  45. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Salvador, Pablo F., 2007. "Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: New Insights on the Nordic Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 3066, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  46. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2007. "The Relationship Between Capital Stock, Unemployment And Wages In Nine Emu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 125-148, 04.
  48. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, March.
  49. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  50. Antonio Ribba, . "Permanent Disinflationary Effects on Unemployment in a Small Open Economy: Italy 1979-1995," EcoMod2006 272100073, EcoMod.
  51. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1998. "The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 149-194, December.
  52. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Long-run inflation-unemployment dynamics: The Spanish Phillips curve and economic policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 279-300.
  53. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  54. Zoega, Gylfi, 1994. "Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  55. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana María & Zoega, Gylfi, 2000. "Evaluating The Persistence And Structuralist Theories Of Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  56. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
  57. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 3477, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  58. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  59. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  60. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2003. "The European Phillips Curve: Does the NAIRU Exist?," IZA Discussion Papers 876, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  61. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?," NBER Working Papers 9835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
  63. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1996. "Is the Natural Rate a Reference Point?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  64. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  65. Ascari, Guido, 1998. "Superneutrality Of Money In Staggered Wage-Setting Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 383-400, September.
  66. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2002. "Staggered price-setting, staggered wage-setting, and business cycle persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 405-433, March.
  67. Rowthorn, Robert, 1995. "Capital Formation and Unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 26-39, Spring.
  68. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February.
  69. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November.
  70. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
  71. Ascari, Guido, 2000. "Optimising Agents, Staggered Wages and Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 664-86, July.
  72. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  73. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1980. "The Changing Cyclical Behavior of Wages and Prices: 1890-1976," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 78-90, March.
  74. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 215-39, September.
  75. Rowthorn, Robert, 1999. "Unemployment, Wage Bargaining and Capital-Labour Substitution," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 413-25, July.
  76. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  77. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper Series 2102, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  78. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  79. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
  80. Assar Lindbeck & Dennis J. Snower, 2001. "Insiders versus Outsiders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, Winter.
  81. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  82. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
  83. Edmund Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Structural booms," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 83-126, 04.
  84. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2006. "Hysteresis And The Nairu In The Euro Area," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 409-429, 09.
  85. Juan J. Dolado & J. David López-Salido & Juan L. Vega, 2000. "Unemployment and inflation persistence in Spain: Are there Phillips trade-offs?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 267-291.
  86. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  87. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis, 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: a dynamic reappraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-273, March.
  88. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  89. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J Snower, 2005. "Inflation Persistence Revisited," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  90. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-71, September.
  91. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 2000. "Capital Stock, Unemployment and Wages in the UK and Germany," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(5), pages 487-503, November.
  92. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  93. Gordon, Robert J, 1982. "Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1087-1117, December.
  94. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  95. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
  96. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  97. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1993. "Explaining Disparities in Unemployment Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  98. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
  99. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  100. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
  101. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1998. "Natural-Rate Theory and OECD Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 782-801, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:1-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.