IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

The US inflation-unemployment trade-off revisited: New evidence for policy-making

Listed author(s):
  • Karanassou, Marika
  • Sala, Hector

This paper addresses the various methodological issues surrounding vector autoregressions, simultaneous equations, and chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that money growth is a superior indicator of the monetary environment than the federal funds rate and, thus, the focus is on the inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and generalised method of moments (GMM) estimations confirm earlier findings in (Karanassou et al., 2005) and (Karanassou et al., 2008b) obtained from chain reaction structural models: the slope of the US Phillips curve is far from vertical, even in the long-run, which implies that the nominal and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoffs, policy makers should reconsider the classical dichotomy thesis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(10)00074-8
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 758-777

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:6:p:758-777
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. M. Woodford., 2010. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
  2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  3. Nelson, Edward, 2007. "Comment on: Samuel Reynard, "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1472-1479, July.
  4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2012. "Productivity Growth And The Phillips Curve: A Reassessment Of The Us Experience," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 344-366, 07.
  5. Ferguson Thomas & Johnson Robert, 2010. "The God that Failed: Free Market Fundamentalism and the Lehman Bankruptcy," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, January.
  6. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
  7. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, 02.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
  10. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
  11. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  12. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
  13. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, 06.
  14. Favara, Giovanni & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Reconsidering the role of money for output, prices and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 419-430, April.
  15. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2003. "The European Phillips Curve: Does the NAIRU Exist?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
  17. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Long-run inflation-unemployment dynamics: The Spanish Phillips curve and economic policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 279-300.
  18. Philipp Bagus & Markus H. Schiml, 2009. "New Modes Of Monetary Policy: Qualitative Easing By The Fed," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 46-49, 06.
  19. Edlin Aaron S. & Jaffee Dwight M., 2009. "Show Me The Money," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-5, March.
  20. Phelps Edmund S., 2009. "Refounding Capitalism," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-12, December.
  21. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
  22. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
  23. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "The Evolution Of Inflation And Unemployment: Explaining The Roaring Nineties," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 334-354, December.
  24. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  25. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
  26. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  27. Stiglitz Joseph E., 2009. "America's Socialism for the Rich," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 1-3, June.
  28. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
  29. Sachs Jeffrey D., 2009. "Rethinking Macroeconomics," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-9, December.
  30. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  31. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
  32. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  33. Edward Nelson, 2008. "Why Money Growth Determines Inflation in the Long Run: Answering the Woodford Critique," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1791-1814, December.
  34. Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
  35. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
  36. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary policy and sectoral shocks : did the Federal Reserve react properly to the high-tech crisis?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3160, The World Bank.
  37. Jan Kregel, 2010. "No Going Back: Why We Cannot Restore Glass-Steagall's Segregation of Banking and Finance," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_107, Levy Economics Institute.
  38. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2008. "A critical reconsideration of the foundations of monetary policy in the new consensus macroeconomics framework," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 761-779, September.
  39. Phelps, Edmund S., 2009. "The uncertain direction of the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 498-501, July.
  40. Antonio Ribba, 2006. "The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 497-511, June.
  41. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
  42. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
  43. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance," Working Paper Series 756, European Central Bank.
  44. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  45. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
  46. Charles Bean, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(1), pages 57-73, January.
  47. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  48. Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105.
  49. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?," NBER Working Papers 9835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:6:p:758-777. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.