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An Empirical Comparison of Canadian-American Business Cycle Fluctuations with Special Reference to the Phillips Curve

In: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics

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  • Robert F. Mulligan

Abstract

Monthly 1980–2014 data are examined to determine how employment responds to money supply shocks in Canada and the United States. The focus of the analysis is a comparison of the real economies’ responses to the financial crisis and the great recession. Employment is used as a proxy for real output, though it may respond to monetary shocks with a longer lag. Vector autoregression models are specified, estimated, and interpreted. Impulse response functions are examined to assess the impact of innovations in monetary policy. A comparison of the response of employment to monetary innovations allows for evaluation of alternative business cycle theories and of the relative efficacy of Canadian v. U.S. monetary policy. Cross-border impacts are also assessed. Granger causality tests are used to examine whether money supply growth causes unemployment, whether monetary shocks cause higher or lower employment, and distinguish between short-run and long-run effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert F. Mulligan, 2016. "An Empirical Comparison of Canadian-American Business Cycle Fluctuations with Special Reference to the Phillips Curve," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Steven Horwitz (ed.), Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 163-194, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:aaeczz:s1529-213420160000020008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Phillips curve; Austrian business cycle theory; vector autoregression; impulse response; cointegration; B53; E32; E63;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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