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Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience

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  • Marika Karanassou

    () (Queen Mary, University of London and IZA)

  • Hector Sala

    () (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and IZA)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse a new Phillips curve (NPC) model and demonstrate that (i) frictional growth, i.e. the interplay of wage-staggering and money growth, generates a nonvertical NPC in the long-run, and (ii) the Phillips curve (PC) shifts with productivity growth. On this basis we estimate a dynamic system of macrolabour equations to evaluate the slope of the PC and explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment in the US from 1970 to 2006. Since our empirical methodology relies heavily on impulse response functions, it represents a synthesis of the traditional structural modelling and (structural) vector autoregressions (VARs). We find that the PC is downward-sloping with a slope of -3.58 in the long-run. Furthermore, during the stagflating 70s, the productivity slowdown contributed substantially to the increases in both unemployment and inflation, while the monetary expansion was quite ineffective and led mainly to higher inflation. Finally, the monetary expansion and productivity speedup of the roaring 90s were both responsible for the significant lowering of the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," Working Papers 623, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp623
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    Cited by:

    1. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2010. "The US inflation-unemployment trade-off revisited: New evidence for policy-making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 758-777, November.
    2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    3. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    4. Sunde, Tafirenyika & Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2015. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," MPRA Paper 86578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    6. Ambrocio, Gene & Jang, Tae-Seok, 2009. "Productivity shocks and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from US and Euro area," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Phillips curve; Frictional growth; Productivity growth; Stagflating seventies; Roaring nineties; Impulse response functions;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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