IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v41y1997i3-5p559-569.html

Is the natural rate a reference point?

Author

Listed:
  • Karanassou, Marika
  • Snower, Dennis J.

Abstract

This paper explores the two common concepts of the natural rate of unemployment: (i) the stable, long-run equilibrium rate of unemployment; and (ii) the equilibrium unemployment rate at which there is no tendency for this rate to change, given the exogenous variables. The first concept (common in the theoretical literature) is impractical for empirical assessment, since it is generally impossible to find reliable estimates of the long-run values of the exogenous variables and since it is inherently unable to provide an analysis of how the NRU changes through time. Consequently, the second concept is used in empirical studies. The paper shows that this latter natural rate is not necessarily a reference point (a value towards which the equilibrium unemployment rate tends with the passage of time). Specifically, it is not a reference point in multi-equation labour market models containing lagged endogenous variables and exogenous variables with non-zero long-run growth rates. Since these features are exceedingly common, our analysis casts serious doubts on the usefulness of the natural rate hypothesis as a predictive tool.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1997. "Is the natural rate a reference point?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 559-569, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:41:y:1997:i:3-5:p:559-569
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014-2921(97)00022-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    2. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1993. "Explaining Disparities in Unemployment Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Assar Lindbeck & Dennis J. Snower, 1989. "The Insider-Outsider Theory of Employment and Unemployment," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262074x, December.
    4. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    5. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1995. "A Contribution to Unemployment Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kee, Hiau Looi & Hoon, Hian Teck, 2005. "Trade, capital accumulation and structural unemployment: an empirical study of the Singapore economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 125-152, June.
    2. Marcello Estevao & Stacey Tevlin, 2000. "Do firms share their success with workers? The response of wages to product market conditions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Bhalotra, Sonia., 2003. "The impact of economic liberalization on employment and wages in India," ILO Working Papers 993650543402676, International Labour Organization.
    4. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "Nominal Wage Indexation, Quasi‐Equilibria And Real Wage Dynamics," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 279-294, July.
    5. repec:ilo:ilowps:365054 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Du Caju, Philip & Fuss, Catherine & Wintr, Ladislav, 2009. "Understanding sectoral differences in downward real wage rigidity: workforce composition, institutions, technology and competition," Working Paper Series 1006, European Central Bank.
    7. Carlsson, Mikael & Eriksson, Stefan & Gottfries, Nils, 2006. "Testing Theories of Job Creation: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?," Working Paper Series 194, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Jimeno, Juan F. & Bentolila, Samuel, 1998. "Regional unemployment persistence (Spain, 1976-1994)," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 25-51, March.
    9. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 024, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    10. Costain, James S. & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1120-1155, April.
    11. López Enciso, Enrique & Ramírez Giraldo, María Teresa (ed.), 2011. "Formación de precios y salarios en Colombia, tomo II," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, volume 2, number 2011b-04, June.
    12. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1996. "A supply-side explanation of European unemployment," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 20(Sep), pages 2-15.
    13. Kornai, János, 2008. "A kapitalizmus néhány rendszerspecifikus vonása [Some system-specific features of capitalism]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 377-394.
    14. James M. Malcomson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2007. "Matching Frictions, Efficiency Wages, and Unemployment in the USA and the UK," Working Papers 2007-02, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    15. Martin Zagler, 2011. "Endogenous Growth, Efficiency Wages, and Persistent Unemployment," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 34-42, April.
    16. Yannick Kalantzis & Ryo Kambayashi & Sébastien Lechevalier, 2012. "Wage and Productivity Differentials in Japan: The Role of Labor Market Mechanisms," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 26(4), pages 514-541, December.
    17. Pantuosco, Lou & Parker, Darrell, 1998. "Sources of Prevailing Differences in Unemployment Rates For Selected Regional Pairs," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(2), pages 35-46, Fall.
    18. Vincenzo SPIEZIA, 2002. "The greying population: A wasted human capital or just a social liability?," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 141(1-2), pages 71-113, March.
    19. Lindbeck, A & Snower, D-J, 1996. "Centralized Bargaining, Multi-Tasking, and Work Incentives," Papers 620, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    20. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S. Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 237-311.
    21. Jean‐Pierre Danthine & André Kurmann, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Reciprocity in Labor Relations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 857-881, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:41:y:1997:i:3-5:p:559-569. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.