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Trade, Capital Accumulation and Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Study of the Singapore Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Hiau Looi Kee

    (The World Bank)

  • Hian Teck Hoon

    (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)

Abstract

This paper studies the factors responsible for the secular decline of Singapore’s unemployment rate over the period 1966-2000 in an environment of low and stable inflation rates. We introduce wage bargaining and unions into a specific-factors, two-sector economy with an export sector and a non-tradable sector to obtain an endogenous natural unemployment rate. Increases in the relative export price and capital stock in the export sector are predicted to reduce structural unemployment. These hypotheses could not be rejected based on structural estimations and co-integration regressions. Empirically, capital accumulation in the export sector explains most of the decline in Singapore’s unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiau Looi Kee & Hian Teck Hoon, 2004. "Trade, Capital Accumulation and Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Study of the Singapore Economy," Working Papers 06-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Mar 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:06-2004
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    2. Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Carrère, Céline & Fugazza, Marco, 2016. "On the heterogeneous effect of trade on unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gaston, Noel & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2013. "How an export boom affects unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 343-355.
    4. Petrucci, Alberto, 2006. "Wealth Accumulation and Growth in a Specific-Factors Model of Trade and Finance," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp06029, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    5. Noel GASTON & YOSHIMI Taiyo, 2020. "Heterogenous Job Separations and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Discussion papers 20032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Gnanaraj Chellaraj & Keith E. Maskus & Aaditya Mattoo, 2013. "Labor Skills and Foreign Investment in a Dynamic Economy: Estimating the Knowledge-capital Model for Singapore," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 627-643, November.
    7. Mattia Di Ubaldo & L. Alan Winters, 2020. "International trade regulation and job creation," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-75, February.
    8. Bernard Hoekman & Alan L. Winters, 2005. "Trade and Employment: Stylized Facts and Research Findings," Working Papers 7, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    9. Qing Liu & Dongdong Yang & Lei Cao & Bruce Anderson, 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, February.
    10. Almosabbeh, Imadeddin, 2008. "العوامل المؤثرة في البطالة في الجمهورية العربية السورية دراسة تطبيقية باستخدام منهجية التكامل المشترك [The Effective Factories in Unemployment in the Syrian Arab Republic: An Empirical Study by Usi," MPRA Paper 41871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Juin‐Jen Chang & Li‐Wen Hung & Shin‐Kun Peng, 2023. "(De)unionization, trade, unemployment, and wage differentials," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(1), pages 121-155, July.
    12. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2012. "The impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports: Sector based evidence from Indonesian manufacturing," IDEC DP2 Series 2-10, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    13. Stelios Bekiros & Amanda Dahlström & Gazi Salah Uddin & Oskar Ege & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2020. "A tale of two shocks: The dynamics of international real estate markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 3-27, January.
    14. Gnanaraj Chellaraj & Aaditya Mattoo, 2009. "Can the Knowledge-Capital Model Explain Sectoral Foreign Invesment? Evidence From Singapore," Economics Study Area Working Papers 101, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous natural rate of unemployment; wage bargaining; specific-factors model; Stolper-Samuelson effect; Rybczynski effect.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

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