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An Artificial Neural Network Experiment on the Prediction of the Unemployment Rate

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  • Vîntu, Denis

Abstract

Unemployment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators for evaluating economic performance and social well-being. Forecasting unemployment is crucial for policymakers, yet traditional econometric models often fail to capture nonlinear and dynamic patterns. This paper presents an experiment applying artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the unemployment rate using macroeconomic data. Results show that ANNs outperform traditional ARIMA models, particularly during stable economic conditions. Implications for policy, limitations, and future research are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Vîntu, Denis, 2025. "An Artificial Neural Network Experiment on the Prediction of the Unemployment Rate," MPRA Paper 125938, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:125938
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/125938/1/MPRA_paper_125938.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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