Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money
Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate, a result that is usually supported by the data. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate this problem, two new and more powerful panel cointegration tests are proposed that can be used under very general conditions. The tests are then applied to a panel covering 10 countries between 1870 and 1986. The results suggest money and real output are cointegrated, and that the neutrality proposition therefore must be rejected.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 36 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992.
"Testing Long Run Neutrality,"
NBER Working Papers
4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001.
"A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
519, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Crowder, William J, 1998. "The Long-Run Link between Money Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 229-43, April.
- Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2006. "A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-216, March.
- James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
- Weber, Axel A, 1994. "Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina-Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
- MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors,"
Cahiers de recherche
2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
- Evans, P, 1996.
"Growth and the Neutrality of Money,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0398, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004.
"Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, . "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-Economic Data," Working Papers 170, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
- Mendizabal, Hugo Rodriguez, 2006. "The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 209-228, February.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
- Joakim Westerlund, 2007.
"Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Koustas, Zisimos, 1998.
"International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 1-25, February.
- Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:36:y:2009:i:1:p:1-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.