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Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos
[Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]

  • Campo Robledo, Jacobo

This paper examines the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability for 8 Latin American countries. Using panel data models, we determined whether the revenue and primary expenditure of governments are sustainable in the long run. We used second generation panel data unit root and cointegration tests, which allows for cross-sectional dependence among countries, as well as possible structural breaks. In particular, we used Hadri and Rao (2008) unit root test and Westerlund (2006) cointegration test. We found empirical evidence that the primary deficit in the 8 Latin American countries is sustainable in a weak sense in the period under study.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33091.

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Date of creation: 30 Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33091
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  1. Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1251, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," DEA Working Papers 10, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
  3. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
  4. Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  5. Ignacio Lozano & Enrique Cabrera, 2010. "Una nota sobre la sostenibilidad fiscal y el nexo entre los ingresos y gastos del Gobierno colombiano," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 207-238, abril-jun.
  6. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2011. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Discussion Papers 11-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  7. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  9. Antonio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "What do we Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Post-Print halshs-00363685, HAL.
  10. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
  11. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  13. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  14. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6681, Inter-American Development Bank.
  15. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  16. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  17. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
  18. Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1436, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  20. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
  21. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, . "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-Economic Data," Working Papers 170, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  22. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  23. Roberto Cortés, 2003. "La Crisis Argentina de 2001-2002," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 762-767.
  24. Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2006. "Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks," Research Papers 200615, University of Liverpool Management School.
  25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  26. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  27. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  28. Joakim Westerlund & Silika Prohl, 2010. "Panel cointegration tests of the sustainability hypothesis in rich OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1355-1364.
  29. Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
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