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Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos
[Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]

  • Campo Robledo, Jacobo

This paper examines the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability for 8 Latin American countries. Using panel data models, we determined whether the revenue and primary expenditure of governments are sustainable in the long run. We used second generation panel data unit root and cointegration tests, which allows for cross-sectional dependence among countries, as well as possible structural breaks. In particular, we used Hadri and Rao (2008) unit root test and Westerlund (2006) cointegration test. We found empirical evidence that the primary deficit in the 8 Latin American countries is sustainable in a weak sense in the period under study.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33091.

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Date of creation: 30 Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33091
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  1. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  2. Chang, Yoosoon, 2004. "Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 263-293, June.
  3. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  5. Banerjee, Anindya & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 0591, European Central Bank.
  6. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  7. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 623-646, October.
  8. MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  10. Antonio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "What do we Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Post-Print halshs-00202799, HAL.
  11. Ignacio Lozano & Enrique Cabrera, 2009. "Una nota sobre la sostenibilidad fiscal y el nexo entre los ingresos y gastos del Gobierno Colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 006126, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  12. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," Research Department Publications 4371, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  13. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  14. Christophe Rault & Antonio Alfonso, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp893, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  15. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  16. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
  17. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
  18. Joakim Westerlund & Silika Prohl, 2010. "Panel cointegration tests of the sustainability hypothesis in rich OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1355-1364.
  19. Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  21. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
  22. Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2008. "Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 245-269, 04.
  23. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
  24. Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1436, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  25. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  26. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  27. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  28. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  29. Roberto Cortés, 2003. "La Crisis Argentina de 2001-2002," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 762-767.
  30. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
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