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Sustainability of Latin American Fiscal Deficits: A Panel Data Approach

  • Jacobo Campo Robledo


  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia


This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for eight Latin Americancountries for the period 1960 - 2009: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Paraguayand Uruguay. Using second generation cointegration panel data models, we test whether governmentrevenues and primary expenditures are sustainable in the long run. This methodology allowsfor cross-sectional dependence among countries and is appropriate under the existence of potentialstructural breaks. We found empirical evidence of sustainability of the primary deficit for theseLatin American countries but only in a weak sense.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 009106.

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Length: 16
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009106
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  1. António AFONSO & Christophe RAULT, 2008. "What do we Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU ? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers 1757, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
  2. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  3. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  4. Ignacio Lozano & Enrique Cabrera, . "Una nota sobre la sostenibilidad fiscal y el nexo entre los ingresos y gastos del Gobierno Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 579, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
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