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Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability

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  • Afonso, António
  • Rault, Christophe

Abstract

We use an original multi-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances. Firstly, we investigate the mean-reverting behaviour of government expenditures and revenues. Secondly, we apply bootstrap panel cointegration techniques to check for a long-run relationship between expenditures and revenues. Thirdly, we check the coefficient of expenditure in the cointegration relation. Fourthly, we estimate panel error correction models to identify short-run and long-run fiscal developments. While the results imply that public finances were not unsustainable for the EU panel, they highlight that fiscal sustainability is an issue for most countries, as evidenced by a below unit estimated coefficient of expenditure in the cointegration relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2015. "Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-209.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:199-209
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.011
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    2. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A., 2016. "(Un-)Sustainability of Public Finances in German Laender: A Panel Time Series Approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 254-265.
    3. António Afonso & José Alves, 2022. "Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?," Working Papers REM 2022/0226, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
    5. Syed Ali Raza & Syed Zaki Hassan & Arshian Sharif, 2019. "Asymmetric Relationship Between Government Revenues and Expenditures in a Developing Economy: Evidence from a Non-linear Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(5), pages 1179-1195, October.
    6. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    8. Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel, 2018. "Size-corrected inference in fiscal policy reaction functions: a three country assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 391-416, September.
    9. Covalschi Tatiana & Lazăr Sebastian, 2016. "The Sustainability of Public Finances in Republic of Moldova Under EU Fiscal Rules," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 149-159, June.
    10. Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "On the Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Inflation: Evidence from World’s Top Oil Exporters and Importers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10879, CESifo.
    11. Török László, 2022. "Breakdown of Government Debt into Components in Euro Area Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-13, February.
    12. Malte Rengel, 2020. "Sustainability of European fiscal balances: Just a statistical artifact?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1681-1712, April.
    13. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld & Kö & Ekkehard A. hler, 2014. "Panel Cointegration Tests on the Fiscal Sustainability of German Laender," CESifo Working Paper Series 4929, CESifo.
    14. Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Glavaški & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2019. "Fiscal Sustainability in Flow Model: Panel Cointegration Approach for the EU-28," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 15-24, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; EU; Panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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