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Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?

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  • Gábor Kutasi

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Abstract

Some EU members faced years of crisis in the first half of the 2010s with an excessive initial public debt, but several others had broad room for fiscal stimulus. However, the prolonged duration of the European economic depression expended public budgets, while exhausting stimulus policies and sovereign solvency. Meanwhile, one of the ways out of depression is a proposed centralization of the EU through fiscal union. Are the eurozone countries ready to participate in a risk pool in public finances? The study seeks to answer this question. The article presents the hypothesis that the sustainability of public finances deteriorated during the global and euro crisis in the majority of the eurozone member countries and in the EU, and this phenomenon is discouraging the core countries from seeking the fiscal union. The analysis uses the Blanchard indicators of fiscal sustainability and the sovereign risk rating of the EURO-18 and EU-28 countries. The analysis presents as results a theoretical summary of fiscal sustainability, the development of fiscal sustainability in the EU member states, indicators of convergence or divergence of fiscal sustainability in the Community, and conclusions based on the indicators of the likelihood of a fiscal union.******Algunos miembros de la UE enfrentaron años de crisis en la primera mitad de la década de 2010 con una excesiva deuda pública inicial, pero varios otros tenían amplio margen para estímulos fiscales. Sin embargo, la prolongada duración de la depresión económica europea agotó los presupuestos públicos, debilitando las políticas de estímulo y la solvencia soberana. Mientras tanto, una de las formas de salir de la depresión es una centralización propuesta de la UE mediante una unión fiscal. ¿Están los países de la eurozona dispuestos a participar en un fondo de riesgo en las finanzas públicas? El estudio busca responder a esta pregunta. El artículo presenta la hipótesis de que la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas se deterioró durante la crisis global y la crisis del euro en la mayoría de los países miembros de la eurozona y en la UE, lo cual desalienta a los países centrales de buscar la unión fiscal. El análisis utiliza los indicadores de sostenibilidad fiscal de Blanchard y la calificación de riesgo soberano de los países de EURO-18 y UE-28. El análisis presenta como resultados un resumen teórico de la sostenibilidad fiscal, el desarrollo de la sostenibilidad fiscal en los Estados miembros de la UE, los indicadores de convergencia o divergencia de sostenibilidad fiscal en la Comunidad y conclusiones basadas en los indicadores de la probabilidad de una unión fiscal.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," REVISTA FINANZAS Y POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:015435
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    File URL: http://editorial.ucatolica.edu.co/ojsucatolica/revistas_ucatolica/index.php/RFYPE/article/view/1337/1270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal sustainability; euro zone.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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