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Sustainability of EU Fiscal Policies: a Panel Test

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  • Claeys, Peter

    () (European University Institute, Universitat de Barcelona and SHERPPA)

Abstract

The fiscal policy rule implicit in the Stability and Growth Pact, has been rationalised as a way to ensure that national fiscal policies remain sustainable within the EU, thereby endorsing the independence of the ECB. We empirically examine the sustainability of European fiscal policies over the period 1970-2001. The intertemporal government budget constraint provides a test based on the cointegration relation between government revenues, expenditures and interest payments. Sustainability is analysed at both the national level and for a European panel. Results show that European fiscal policy has been sustainable overall, yet national experiences differ considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Claeys, Peter, 2007. "Sustainability of EU Fiscal Policies: a Panel Test," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 112-127.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0388
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    Cited by:

    1. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:3:a:66468 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Csaba Tóth G., 2014. "The Forecasting Capacity of Indicators Measuring Budget Sustainability," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 59(4), pages 511-528.
    4. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    5. Michael Artis & Ernest Miguélez & Rosina Moreno, 2009. "Assessing Agglomeration Economies in a Spatial Framework with Endogenous Regressors," SERC Discussion Papers 0023, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    6. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    7. Peter Claeys & Luis Costa, 2012. "“A Note on the Relationship Between the Cyclicality of Markups and Fiscal Policy”," AQR Working Papers 201208, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2012.
    8. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/20, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    10. Alessandro Maravalle & Peter Claeys, 2010. "Fiscal policy and economic stability: does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," IREA Working Papers 201015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised 2010.
    11. Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Implications of Social Spending for Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 4(3).
    12. María Lorena Marí del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2013. "“Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador”," IREA Working Papers 201306, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2013.
    13. Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," REVISTA FINANZAS Y POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
    14. Daniel Albalate del Sol, 2013. "The institutional, economic and social determinants of local government transparency," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 90-107, March.
    15. Juan Luis Jiménez & Jordi Perdiguero & Ancor Suárez, 2011. "Debating as a classroom tool for adapting learning outcomes to the European higher education area," IREA Working Papers 201109, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2011.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Debt sustainability; Panel unit root test; Panel cointegration test; EMU;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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