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Sustainability of budget deficits and public debts in selected European Union countries

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  • Neaime, Simon

Abstract

This paper presents a thorough empirical analysis of fiscal developments in the European Union over the past three decades. After an evaluation of major fiscal and financial developments in France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, the paper uses the Present Value Constraint (PVC) framework to analyze whether European Union's debts and deficits are sustainable. It is shown that some EU's countries could be heading towards a debt and fiscal crisis, which could degenerate into a banking crisis similar to the 2001 Argentinean crisis, unless timely fiscal adjustment/austerity measures are introduced in the near future.

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  • Neaime, Simon, 2015. "Sustainability of budget deficits and public debts in selected European Union countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:12:y:2015:i:1:p:1-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2014.10.002
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    3. Bello, Abdulmajeed Kumo & Joshua Adams Ndako & Yusuf, Fadimah & Amodu Amina Ejura, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance and Monetary Policy Efficacy in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(10), pages 857-877, October.
    4. Sergey Zhavoronkov & Konstantin Yanovskiy & Kirill Rodionov, 2015. "Political Factors of the Cuts and Surges in Government Spending: The Effects on Old Market Democracies and Post-Communist Countries," Working Papers 146, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    5. Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
    6. Mario Coccia, 2018. "National debts and government deficits within European Monetary Union: Statistical evidence of economic issues," Papers 1806.07830, arXiv.org.
    7. Neaime, Simon & Gaysset, Isabelle, 2017. "Sustainability of macroeconomic policies in selected MENA countries: Post financial and debt crises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 129-140.
    8. Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Mohamad Shaharudin Samsurijan, 2021. "What matters for finance‐growth nexus? A critical survey of macroeconomic stability, institutions, financial and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5302-5320, October.
    9. Ehigiamusoe, Kizito Uyi & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2020. "The role of deficit and debt in financing growth in West Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 216-234.
    10. Hurić-Bjelan Jasmina & Hadžiahmetović Azra, 2020. "External Debt in Bosnia and Herzegovina – An Empirical Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 70-82, December.
    11. Neaime, Simon & Gaysset, Isabelle & Badra, Nasser, 2018. "The eurozone debt crisis: A structural VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 22-33.
    12. Coccia, Mario, 2017. "Asymmetric paths of public debts and of general government deficits across countries within and outside the European monetary unification and economic policy of debt dissolution," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 17-31.
    13. Narayan, Laxmi, 2016. "Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Sustainability for Haryana," MPRA Paper 70100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Giannini, Bianca & Oldani, Chiara, 2022. "Asymmetries in the sustainability of public debt in the EU: The use of swaps," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    15. Zeineb Gouasmi & Houda Haffoudhi, 2020. "Analysis of Sustainability of Fiscal Policy and Democratic Transition: Case of Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(2), pages 512-529, June.
    16. Olaoye, Olumide Olusegun & Olomola, P.A., 2022. "Empirical analysis of asymmetry phenomenon in the public debt structure of Sub-Saharan Africa's five biggest economies: A Markov-Switching model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    17. Neaime, Simon & Gaysset, Isabelle, 2018. "Financial inclusion and stability in MENA: Evidence from poverty and inequality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 230-237.
    18. Gaysset, Isabelle & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2019. "Twin deficits and fiscal spillovers in the EMU's periphery. A Keynesian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-116.
    19. Covalschi Tatiana & Lazăr Sebastian, 2016. "The Sustainability of Public Finances in Republic of Moldova Under EU Fiscal Rules," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 149-159, June.
    20. MSRGSRITA Ilinca & RSDULESCU Magdalena & LUCIAN Paul, 2022. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Developments On Exports Of The Central And Eastern European Countries," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 74(4), pages 50-63, December.
    21. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir & Martin, Christopher, 2015. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit hypothesis in African countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 80-91.
    22. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    23. Danijela DURKALIĆ & Mihailo ĆURČIĆ, 2019. "Comparative analysis of debt sustainability of EU countries and EU candidates: the Promethee-Gaia approach," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 67-92, June.
    24. Nicholas Apergis, 2015. "Old wine in a new bottle: public debt sustainability - evidence from a number of EU countries under fiscal consolidation," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 131-136.
    25. Altug Murat Köktaº & Tugay Günel, 2022. "Impact of Fiscal Rules on Government Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Emerging European Countries: Threshold Effect of Budget Deficit," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(3), pages 264-283, January.

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